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Hold or Fold – Ep. 196

PODCAST: Who should be on the chopping block and who should you get in for round eight?

A lot of experienced AFL Fantasy coaches will tell you to back your premiums. “They’ll come good” they say. They suggest to build your team around the out of form players and it will be better in the long run.

Up until this week, Dayne Zorko (MID, $576,000) owners could be forgiven for not heeding this advice. The man who averaged 114 last season was having a stinking start to the year averaging 66.5 and with his scoring gradually getting worse with a run of 72, 63, 55 and 43 up until round six.

His 176 on the weekend was not only the highest score of the round, it was a reward for the 3.9 per cent of coaches who opted not to trade him out in Fantasy Classic.

Already this week he is one of the most popular players traded in after dropping a total of $229,000, the most of any player this season. A breakeven of 58 means Zorko’s price will be heading north of the $576,000 he is currently valued at.

Zorko faces the Bulldogs this week and last time he played them at Etihad Stadium, he scored 157.

Jack Billings (FWD, $551,000) appears in more than 25 per cent of teams and his coaches have been frustrated by his season to date. Scores of 64 and 66 in the past fortnight has seen his price drop to $115,000 below where he started and he is showing he is a long way from the premium selection many initially thought.

The Saint averaged 94.5 last year in what was a breakout season for the 22-year-old.

A key statistic is that he averaged more than 100 in St Kilda’s wins last year. In their only win of 2018, he scored 123. From round seven Billings averaged 101.3 after starting the year averaging 76.6. This year he currently averaging 78.6. Could we see a turn around?

Another player who coaches expected more from is Luke Parker (MID, $623,000). The Swan was seen as under-priced at the start of the year due to the fact he has averaged 110 previously.

A midfield spot is wasted on a supposed premium Fantasy player who has scored 73, 80 and 73 in the last three weeks.

Similar to Billings, Parker’s season started slowly (no tons in first seven weeks of 2017) but improved from this point. The 26-year-old went at 108 points per game from round eight.

Will history repeat? The Traders discuss whether you should hold or fold under-performing stars on this week’s episode of the Official AFL Fantasy Podcast.

 

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13 Comments

13 Comments

  1. Stalliondongs

    May 7, 2018 at 7:54 pm

    Hoping nicnat gets let off for his great tackle,otherwise will need to either field the useless english

    • NacNit

      May 7, 2018 at 10:49 pm

      Nic nat got a one week holiday.

      • Stalliondongs

        May 8, 2018 at 12:45 am

        Yeah i know,they will appeal though,match review said he pinned his arms.Which upon viewing its obvious he didnt.

        • Tommo

          May 8, 2018 at 1:24 pm

          He can’t help it he’s tackling someone a 1/4 his size lol

          • Grovers Guns

            May 8, 2018 at 1:37 pm

            Wasn’t a legal tackle (was a push in the back) so regardless of pinning arms, I can’t see him getting off from the ‘rough conduct’ charge.
            Maybe harsh, but you can’t just jump on a guys back and ride him into the ground.

            Causing me a headache and giving Billings or Parker another go in my team now as I have only McInernay on bench as back up. English aint being reversed traded.
            Thinking Nic Nat to Crossley for a couple of weeks through the byes and then getting SMartin or Grundy

  2. Constantinople

    May 7, 2018 at 8:57 pm

    Boys what do you reckon macrae’s chances are of coping the touktouk tag this week? He shut down on zork in the Qclash, why wouldnt they tag one of the most inform mids atm?
    Is mclean the safer trade in? (Having said that- if menegola can get tagged in a game that included danger, selwood and duncan then anythings possible)

    • Roger

      May 7, 2018 at 10:21 pm

      Ummm they played gc on the weekend

      • Constantinople

        May 8, 2018 at 12:14 pm

        Ha ha😀 good call. Shows how much notice i took of the non-wce games this round. Apparently its still round 6 in my head.
        Might help to explain my poor score of 1901……☠

  3. shitson

    May 7, 2018 at 10:56 pm

    English is gone this week, but who goes first out of Parker or Billings?

    • Nick

      May 8, 2018 at 8:52 am

      Parker, more important spot he’s clogging

  4. Hendog (43

    May 8, 2018 at 3:01 am

    Bilbet #458 CLassic

  5. Hendog

    May 8, 2018 at 3:02 am

    Did anyone have the balls to start with Tom Philips? #458 Classic

    • Dulcify

      May 8, 2018 at 8:50 am

      I did consider him Hendog, honest. I do have him in all of my UF draft leagues. He has been great.

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