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Inside the Numbers

Inside the Numbers – Round 6

Pete goes inside the numbers from round six.

St Kilda has been a frustrating team to deal with from a fantasy perspective in 2018 & particularly one player named Jack Billings, the Saints are struggling with a 1-1-4 record and are averaging 64.7pts per game (Rank 17) & 56.2pts from their last 5 games (Rank 18).

Languishing mostly around the half forward flank the output for Billings has been hampered by the poor form by the Saints, coming off a year in which he scored 100pts or more in 50.0% of his games Billings has exceed 100pts in only 1 game this season.

Last year Billings averaged 101.2pts from winning games, he scored 123pts in the Saints only win this year & 87pts in a draw against GWS in Round 5. Billings averaged 88.0pts from losing games last season, he has averaged 68.5pts from losing games in 2018.

Based what many predicted for the Saints this season Billings was a decent pick prior to Round 1, but after losing 8 games last year by 30pts or more we may have been blinded somewhat by opinion.

The amount of people trading out Billings this week will significantly increase coming off another sub-par score, before you trade him out here are the last scores from his next 3 opponents:

Round 7: 135 Melbourne
Round 8: 102 Fremantle
Round 9: 119 Collingwood

If the Saints can turn their season around quickly then Billings will likely benefit, he does have a decent ceiling that can’t be underestimated. One final note, Billings averaged 90.7pts between Rounds 1-11 last season and averaged 97.8pts between Rounds 12-23.

Round 6 Highest Disposals

457 Adelaide
432 Collingwood
424 GWS Giants

Collingwood 5 straight games of 400+ Disposals

Round 6 Lowest Disposals

319 Geelong
339 Carlton
345 Nth Melbourne

Carlton has averaged 328.5 Disposals in their last 4 games (Rank 18)

Season Highest Ave Team Disposals

409.7 Collingwood
405.5 Adelaide
400.3 GWS Giants

Season Lowest Ave Team Disposals

346.2 Carlton
354.3 Gold Coast
354.5 Nth Melbourne

Round 6 Highest Team Scores

1868 Adelaide
1751 Collingwood
1708 Hawthorn

Adelaide average 1736.0pts at the Adelaide Oval in 2018

Round 6 Lowest Team Scores

1367 Nth Melbourne
1401 Geelong
1438 Richmond

Geelong points differential -66.8pts compared to 2017 H&A season

Season Highest Ave Team Points

1681.0 Adelaide
1662.2 GWS Giants
1657.5 Collingwood

Season Lowest Ave Team Points

1463.5 Carlton
1474.2 Richmond
1492.8 Brisbane

Jack Macrae (R6: 145) has averaged 124.5pts from his last 8 games

Patrick Cripps has averaged 33.0 Disposals in the last 2 weeks, he has a career average of 119.8pts when recording 30 or more Disposals

Patrick Dangerfield (R6: 70) has never scored fewer than 100pts in 2 consecutive games at Geelong

Jake Lloyd (R6: 120) has averaged 28.5 Disposals in the last 2 weeks

Todd Goldstein (R6: 95) has not scored 100pts or more in 4 consecutive games, he has scored 100pts or more in 2 of his last 17 games

Jared Polec (R6: 156) recorded a career high score in Round 6

Brett Deledio (R6: 116) has averaged 113.3pts from his last 3 games

Dayne Zorko (R6: 43) has averaged 58.3pts from his last 4 games

Harry Morrison (R6: 106) scored a career high in Round 6, he is averaging 18.4 Disposals from his first 5 career games

Jack Steven (R6: 100) has scored 100pts or more in 4 of 6 games this season

Paul Seedsman (R6: 116) has averaged 106.6pts from his last 5 games

Jarryd Lyons (R5: 131) has scored 120pts or more in 3 of 6 games this season

Zach Merrett (R6: 121) has averaged 117.0pts from his last 3 games

Max Gawn (R6: 135) has averaged 129.8pts from his last 4 games

Adam Treloar (R6: 147) has averaged 134.7pts from his last 3 games

Toby Nankervis (R6: 131) scored 100pts or more for the first time since R23, 2017 (8 games)

Ed Langdon (R6: 120) has averaged 104.0pts from his last 3 games

Andrew Gaff (R6: 120) has averaged 114.3pts from in his last 3 games against Fremantle

Good Luck for Round 7

8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Gary

    May 1, 2018 at 7:06 pm

    Where are you Matt???

    Miss my weekly fix of The Weekend Washup

    • AFLFantasy2k18

      May 1, 2018 at 9:35 pm

      Agreed.
      Also missing the Who Am I? segment in this post..

  2. anth80

    May 1, 2018 at 7:19 pm

    Taranto or Lids

    • Brad

      May 1, 2018 at 7:50 pm

      Can’t split them either mate. Everyone saying Taranto will lose his midfield once Kelly comes back but they’re only assuming. Given how good he’s been I still think he’ll a part of the rotations. Lids, well we know he can score highly and consistently, only concern is body, don’t see him playing all 22 games, likely get a rest or two

      Taranto doesn’t need a huge amount of tackles to score highly as he tackles so much. I’m favouring Taranto slightly just due to being a little more reliable body wise. He’s also 5 from 6 over 90+. We could well be looking at the Clayton Oliver of 2018 but are just too scared due to role change. If he continues his role, Taranto will be close to a top 6 forward imo

  3. Chubby Rain

    May 1, 2018 at 9:06 pm

    Im on Lids. Bit of a POD and higher ceiling than Taranto. Im a TT owner and am devo about not taking punt on Lids last week. GWS are building so Im on Lids. Will take some good scores and price increase then dump if he misses

  4. Dan

    May 2, 2018 at 1:08 pm

    guys i need help.

    I can either get rid of Billings for Deledio, or downgrade billings to Spargo and and go holman to merrett.

    SO ultimately it’s either Deledio or Merrett. but if I go merrett my forward line looks weak as p!ss

  5. Marcus

    May 2, 2018 at 2:03 pm

    This week I’ll be saying goodbye to Casboult and Banfield this week for Much and Delidio. Is this a good move

  6. Marcus

    May 2, 2018 at 2:07 pm

    Hi Dan, if I was in you position I would probably fix Forward line.

    If I was going to fix my Mids seeing I got Merrett I would jump on Fyfe or Treloar.

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