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Cal’s Scale of Hardness – Finals Edition

Cal’s Scale of Hardness is BACK! It’s better than before with new improved complex formula stuff and things

Here we go again… I have been working very hard today with my cal-culator and have crunched the numbers for the run home over the Fantasy finals.

The complex formula is even more complex than ever before. Also, because we all like pretty colours, I’ve added a beautiful blue into the mix.

The “Difficulty Rank” are the teams ranked, based on how hard they are to score against.

But this time, I weighted more importance on the last four weeks than the points they have given up over the course of the year.

Although this did come into my cal-culations, the percentage of weight in the last four weeks is much higher than what numbers that teams have given up over the course of the year. Both still play a factor and both were still cal-culated.

The chart with the last four rounds is simple to understand, and it’s based solely off the colour ranks in the “Difficulty Rank” list.

However when cal-culating the teams with the best run home, I have also added ‘bonus points’ to teams who are at home to travelling teams. This is weighted on a percentage based on how many points they have given up over the last four weeks alone.

Of course, some home games are ‘insignificant’. Such as Geelong traveling to Etihad to play the Bombers. This is an Essendon home game, but with no particular advantage to them playing a Melbourne based team, and no particular disadvantage to the Cats.

I’ve more so focused on inter-state travel. Such as in the Adelaide v Brisbane game this week. Adelaide at home have been granted ‘bonus’ points under my complex system as they will be at a huge advantage this week. However when they play Port in round 22, no bonus was of course given.

calscaleofhardnessfinals2016

In summary…

1 – Teams are ranked based on what they have given up in the last four weeks and overall this year, with more emphasise on the last four games.

2 – Teams with a significant home ground advance have been awarded ‘bonus points’ based on the amount of points the team they are playing are conceding in recent weeks.

3 – Hope that makes sense.

Just trust me… everything is in tip top condition here.

45 Comments

45 Comments

  1. Blaise

    Blaise

    August 1, 2016 at 2:14 pm

    You’re a legend

    • Lachie

      August 1, 2016 at 6:35 pm

      Vince,Burgoyne, j j, hodge

  2. Nick

    August 1, 2016 at 2:34 pm

    Hannebery or Treloar ?

    • Calvin

      Calvin

      August 1, 2016 at 2:53 pm

      Adelaide

      • Nick

        August 1, 2016 at 3:08 pm

        So anyone from Adelaide is better than Hannebery or Treloar? if i dont have enough to pick up Slone, would one of the Crouch brothers be a good pick?

        • Calvin

          Calvin

          August 1, 2016 at 3:10 pm

          Sloane #1 target, Coniglio another.
          If you must… Hanners over Treloar

          • Navman86

            August 1, 2016 at 3:42 pm

            I am in a similar boat. Dont have enough cash to get Sloane, but how about Taylor Adams as a POD ?

            Btw great work Calvin – you are a legend sir !

          • Nick

            August 1, 2016 at 3:43 pm

            Thanks Cal

          • Bigfoot

            August 1, 2016 at 6:32 pm

            Just wondering,won’t Sloane be tagged by red bull robbo this weekend? & possibly port will bring in k.Mitchell to tag him in the showdown?

  3. Stewie

    August 1, 2016 at 2:54 pm

    With an easy run home, will that lead to teams ‘resting’ players for finals? I.e Sloane, Dangerfield

    • Sir Relton

      August 1, 2016 at 2:59 pm

      Beware serial offenders ie Hawthorn, especially with 2 game lead, and Geelong have old men that need extra recovery. But the bye week before finals SHOULD mean no point resting guys.

      • Taezer

        August 1, 2016 at 4:30 pm

        Yeah the worry round is vs west coast in R22… even with the week off, who’d be surprised if he gave Sam Mitchell et al a week off the taxing travel demands.

        Especially if they are 2 games clear.

      • Rohan

        August 1, 2016 at 7:54 pm

        ross lyon will stil rest 10

    • Ictopol

      August 1, 2016 at 3:53 pm

      The one week break before finals should minimise the risk of resting players.

      • kobe bryant

        August 1, 2016 at 5:54 pm

        Also, crows, geelong etc are all tied so will need to get the best % boost possible each game so can’t really see sloane and the like being rested. Dangerfield is going for the brownlow as well so doubt he’ll miss.

  4. Calvin

    Calvin

    August 1, 2016 at 3:07 pm

    Yeah agree with the Sir there.
    That BYE round after round 23, should be enough. No one will need two weeks rest and with only four games to go, people will rest sooner rather than later. Like the Dogs did with Boyd and Suckers this week.

  5. Shakes

    August 1, 2016 at 3:12 pm

    Love the work Cal!

  6. AJ

    August 1, 2016 at 3:46 pm

    Excellent article !

    I’m a sucker for clicking on anything with one of those ‘current affair’ style big red stamps !

  7. Scott

    August 1, 2016 at 3:49 pm

    Zac Williams, James Kelly or Bachar Houli for D6?

    • Jacob

      August 1, 2016 at 4:25 pm

      I would say Houli due to him being a proven scorer

    • Stevo

      August 1, 2016 at 4:38 pm

      Kelly has been great this year and coming off a rest. Houli been back one game from about a 12 week injury

  8. loki

    August 1, 2016 at 4:14 pm

    great article, just one question (not a smart arse question). You have Carlton’s run below STK, Gold Coast and Brisbane. Both Stk and brisbane play Carlton, all 3 (stk GC and Bris) all have a top 8 team to play (brisbane 2) Carlton dont. Or is the positions you have given them irrelevant? ie simply blocked by colour? and no real ranking from 1-18? cheers, as I said, top work.

    • loki

      August 1, 2016 at 4:31 pm

      ie, blocked by colour, no team in the light green block is ranked, just grouped together.

    • zaydb

      August 1, 2016 at 6:17 pm

      I do agree with you as it seems Carlton should most definitely be above at least Gold Coast. The only possible explanation I have is that it isn’t really in order, only separated by the colour blocks.

  9. Taezer

    August 1, 2016 at 4:37 pm

    Great article, really useful tool, but would definitely add that it’s just a tool and everything is relative to the fund/players you are looking at… Adelaide have a great run home, but I am still looking at picking up Treloar this week at a steal $44k less than Sloane and use that cash for upgrades next week.

  10. Davo

    August 1, 2016 at 4:50 pm

    Is it better to pick up Sloane or go with the greater PoD in T.Adams?

    • Taezer

      August 1, 2016 at 5:12 pm

      I reckon a lot of it depends what your objective is – are you going for overall or league?
      If it’s overall, unless you’re inside the top 100, just go for whoever you think will score the most, because whatever you pick there will be people you can climb above just by picking good players.
      If you’re really well ranked, go unique, it’s boom or bust.

      If it’s for a league, decide if your team is better than the people you’re going to be up against and decide if you need to chase points by being unique or match them up.

      End of the day, pick who you think will score the best out of the players you can pick from.

  11. Minky

    August 1, 2016 at 4:52 pm

    Great article Calvin. Given Vince’s tough run home and average form lately would you consider off loading if you have a full team?

    • zaydb

      August 1, 2016 at 5:16 pm

      If you have a full team, yes.

    • Taezer

      August 1, 2016 at 5:28 pm

      Yeah, if he’s the worst/most out of form player on your team, upgrade away!

    • Minky

      August 1, 2016 at 9:04 pm

      Thanks guys, I think it is between Vince, Titch and JJ that have to be upgraded

      On ground team is currently:

      Def: Shaw, Docherty, Simpson, Vince, Laird, JJ
      Mid: Danger, Rocky, Stevens, Sloane, Pendles, Hunter, Hanners, Titch
      Ruck: Gawn, S Martin
      Fwd: Merret, Zorko, D Martin, Riewoldt, R Gray, Montagna

  12. Alex

    August 1, 2016 at 5:47 pm

    Another point that hasn’t necessarily been touched upon is that the 3 teams with the easiest run home are also locked in a tight race for top 4.

    Given the week off after the final round of the season, it seems to me that there is less likelihood of players being rested from teams that have a need to win every game from here on out. For example, given Bartel skipped the trip to Perth, it may be that he plays the balance of games through to finals.

    Having said that, Lewis or Mitchell might cop a rest if it’s clear that Hawks will finish on top.

    But unique premiums like Bont, Kennedy, Conilio and Sloane in my opinion wouldn’t be rested when qualification for a home QF (or in Bont’s case, reaching QF at all) is on the line.

    • Alex

      August 1, 2016 at 5:48 pm

      Sorry, just saw that discussion above

      • Shakes

        August 1, 2016 at 6:24 pm

        I’d say a two week rest may be detrimental to a players form though. They might take them to Perth anyway and just reduce their game time (which actually might be worse for us Fantasy coaches!). Just speculating, but it’s entirely possible.

        • xxxx

          August 2, 2016 at 11:57 pm

          Breust said today that they might still rest some, and employ the bye week to play an intra-club match to keep them somewhat match-ready.

  13. Stuart

    Stuart

    August 1, 2016 at 6:35 pm

    Rhys Stanley a POD?

    • Stevo

      August 1, 2016 at 6:57 pm

      no

  14. James

    August 1, 2016 at 8:18 pm

    Zorko or dusty??

    • xxxx

      August 2, 2016 at 11:57 pm

      Dusty.

  15. Chris

    August 1, 2016 at 10:26 pm

    Dahlhaus or D.Smith and why?

    • xxxx

      August 2, 2016 at 11:58 pm

      the house. because certain to fill in more midfield time (than normal, compared to Smith) in the coming weeks.

  16. John

    August 1, 2016 at 10:34 pm

    C.smith>D.Smith or Dahlhaus
    Jacobs> goldy or Mumford
    Or
    C.Smith>D.smith or Dahlhaus
    Currie> down to a ruckman to cover Jacobs have frost

  17. Tex

    August 2, 2016 at 3:04 am

    Thanks Calvin you legend!

    I’m sitting 126th and to maximise points this week I’m actually considering:
    Vince -> Enright
    Montagna -> D.Smith

    DEF: Shaw, Docherty, Simpson, Laird, Vince, Bartel [Castagna, Collins]
    MID: Dangerfield, Rockliff, Parker, Hunter, Hannebery, T.Mitchell, Lewis, Duncan [Mathieson, Sumner]
    RUC: Gawn, Martin [Naismith, A.Smith]
    FWD: Z.Merrett, Zorko, Martin, Riewoldt, Gray, Montagna [C.Smith, Reid]

  18. Eugenio Russomanno

    August 24, 2016 at 8:32 pm

    The Mohs scale of mineral hardness is based on the ability of one natural sample of mineral to scratch another mineral visibly. The samples of matter used by Mohs are all different minerals. Minerals are pure substances found in nature. Rocks are made up of one or more minerals.

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