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Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 6

After a poor showing, plenty of rooks are on the chopping block this week. Jeppa’s got the full analysis here and he gives us his recommendations on which fresh faces to bring in. Leave a question and he’ll be happy to give you his opinion too.

A few of our rooks turned sour grapes in Round 6 and I’ve never been the patient type. Who you can offload will typically depend on your DPP links so I hope you’ve got some handy.

Cheap premos are a natural attraction. Rocky is the obvious choice while Vince is now a guaranteed top 6 defender in Fantasy. Always trade based on need!

FYI my AFL Fantasy trades this week are Laird to Boyd and Dea to Vince (the double downgrade last week was timely!). In Dreamteam, I’m benching Laird and going Parish to Smith and Dea to Houli. Rocky will have to wait.

Three-Or-More Gamers

Screen Shot 2016-05-04 at 12.39.37 AMKEEPERS

Mitch Brown (Def/Fwd. $288,000, 14 be AF. $275,800, -6 be DT) got the better of the Carlton defenders last Sunday scoring an impressive 96 Fantasy points from 12 kicks, 4 handballs, 8 marks, 3 tackles and 2 goals. Having Grimley in the team (along with Daniher) has allowed him to push well up the ground and win more of the footy. Hallelujah! We’re obviously keeping Brown and against the short defence of Sydney this week consider starting him on your field…I am!

It was another on field master class from Daniel Wells (Fwd/Mid. $408,000, 60 be AF. $378,500, 51 be DT) 98 and Sam Kerridge (Fwd/Mid. $413,000, 55 be AF. $380,100, 20 be DT) 91 in Round 6. Not much to say except hold.

Expensive juniors Blake Acres (Mid. $300,000, 0 be AF. $319,800, 12 be DT) and Daniel Menzel (Fwd. $359,000, 6 be AF. $348,600, -14 be DT) went BIG!!! Acres played the best game of his short career amassing 28 possessions (team high), 7 marks, 5 tackles, 2 tackles and 126 Fantasy points against the Dees. Menzel bullied the Suns on his way to scoring 122! Naturally, these sorts of scores aren’t sustainable but the short-term cash influx from Acres and Menzel will please their owners.

Lesser likes Corey Ellis (Fwd/Mid. $254,000, 20 be AF. $270,900, 39 be DT) 83, Ryan Crowley (Mid. $273,000, 23 be AF. Mid. $320,600, 45 be DT) 79, Andrew Phillips (Ruc/Fwd. $243,000, 18 be AF. $265,100, 26 be DT) 78, Jed Lamb (Fwd. $243,000, 19 be AF. $258,800, 23 be DT) 73 round out the keepers this week. You wouldn’t look to trade these guys in now.

DON’T PANIC

Ciaran Byrne (Def. $229,000, 6 be AF. $228,700, 2 be DT) started on fire against Essendon with 10 touches and 32 Fantasy points to quarter time but unfortunately he couldn’t go on with it finishing with just 63 Fantasy points. It’s clear that the young Irishman is building confidence so don’t trade him just yet, in fact start him on your field this week because the Blues play the cold Pies.

Other ‘juniors’ that are still steadily going up in value include Ben Kennedy (Fwd/Mid. $319,000, 57 be AF. $323,300, 64 be DT) 68, Darcy Byrne-Jones (Def. $251,000, -3 be AF. $254,900, -6 be DT) 66, Nakia Cockatoo (Fwd. $242,000, 19 be AF. $259,300, 35 be DT) 64, Tom Papley (Fwd. $279,000, 27 be AF. $262,100, -21 be DT) 61, Callum Mills (Def/Mid. $313,000, 39 be AF. Mid. $324,900, 41 be DT) 60, George Hewett (Mid/Fwd. $259,000, 32 be AF. Mid. $231,700, -4 be DT) 58, Lachie Weller (Mid. $267,000, 25 be AF. $299,400, 36 be DT) 58, Josh Wagner (Def. $249,000, 0 be AF. $256,300, 3 be DT) 57, Michael Hartley (Def. $231,000, 23 be AF. $217,700, 1 be DT) 56, Mitch McGovern (Fwd. $264,000, 31 be AF. $269,900, 34 be DT) 55, Liam Sumner (Mid/Fwd. $176,000, 4 be AF. $163,400, -9 be DT) 54, Hayden Crozier (Fwd. $249,000, 30 be AF. $256,800, 20 be DT) 53, Dean Kent (Fwd. $306,000, 25 be AF. $348,100, 49 be DT) 43, Ryan Harwood (Def. $239,000, 29 be AF. $276,700, 52 be DT) 42, Lincoln McCarthy (Fwd. $248,000, 32 be AF. $249,100, 34 be DT) 37 and Jayden Hunt (Fwd. $164,000, 15 be AF. $153,900, 10 be DT) 29. Hold them if you own them.

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE

It’s time to offload your fattened cashcows and the priority trade list looks like this:

  1. Jacob Weitering *injured (Def. $290,000, 77 be AF. $285,800, 91 be DT) 28.
  2. Connor Menadue (Fwd/Mid. $245,000, 56 be AF. $246,300, 53 be DT) 50.
  3. Matt Dea (Def. $300,000, 64 be AF. $299,400, 81 be DT) 38.
  4. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (Def/Fwd. $290,000, 48 be AF. $284,300, 52 be DT) 41.
  5. Darcy Parish (Mid. $359,000, 84 be AF. $331,100, 65 be DT) 47.

Marcus Adams (Def/Fwd. $330,000, 68 be AF. $310,400, 64 be DT) 53, Eric MacKenzie (Def. $281,000, 59 be AF. $281,700, 66 be DT) 51, Clay Cameron (Def/Fwd. $266,000, 49 be AF. Def. $259,700, 44 be DT) 47, James Sicily (Fwd. $294,000, 63 be AF. $295,300, 25 be DT) 41, Ryan Davis (Fwd/Mid. $219,000, 37 be AF. Mid. $205,700, 42 be DT) 42 and Sam Frost (Ruc/Fwd. $202,000, 24 be AF. $217,900, 8 be DT) 29 are a few more that you could trade without reservation.

Please note that if I haven’t mentioned a rookie priced player above, it means they’re not relevant. Remember rooks are classified as players under $250,000 in Fantasy and/or Dreamteam.

Two Gamers

Screen Shot 2016-05-04 at 12.14.06 AMA four quarter effort and 97 Fantasy points from Josh Smith (Mid. $203,000, -39 be AF. $105,800, -127 be DT) saw him top the charts for the two gamers in Round 6. I was at the game on Sunday and watching him with a keen eye I noticed his huge work rate. Gut running on the vast spaces of Domain Stadium saw Smith win 29 possessions but his kicking needs work. As Fantasy/Dreamteam coaches, we want accumulators and he definitely ticks that box. He was named in the bests for the Pies too so you’d think his job security would be safe in the short term. Smith has to be your number one downgrade target in Dreamteam this week and Fantasy too if no other cheapies are named. Playing Carlton at the G on Saturday, you might as well start him on your field!

After all these years, we finally got a glimpse of Daniel Currie’s (Ruc. $165,000, 18 be AF. $128,200, -56 be DT) potential. He won the battle against Zac Smith last Saturday night and gathered 9 possessions, 5 marks, 34 hitouts, 4 tackles and 83 Fantasy points in the process. He’s most people’s R3/R4 so sit back and enjoy the earnings. Same goes for Mason Cox (Ruc/Fwd. $171,000, -12 be AF. $121,300, -60 be DT) who was surprisingly competitive against West Coast scoring 62. Sam Grimley (Ruc/Fwd. $241,000, 40 be AF. $121,300, -33 be DT) was the worst of the rucks registering just 29 Fantasy points.

Jonathan Simpkin (Fwd/Mid. $243,000, 21 be AF. $275,200, 30 be DT) has improved his fitness and it’s translated through to Fantasy. Playing a pure midfield role, Simpkin amassed 25 possessions, 4 marks, 2 tackles and 74 Fantasy points in an encouraging performance against the Blues. Question is, would we bother trading in Simpkin now with an energetic and cheaper Josh Smith and Ben Keays available? Probably not. If he was $100,000 cheaper, it would be a different story.

Seesawing scoring from Peter Wright (Fwd. $198,000, 10 be AF. $193,200, -19 be DT) will have his owners frustrated. The big fella had an inspiring 98 Fantasy points in Round 5 but could manage just 22 last weekend. That’s a good example of why we avoid young key forwards! With Lobbe sustaining an injury in the SANFL, Dougal Howard (Fwd. $152,000, 2 be AF. $128,200, -24 be DT) is in the box seat for more senior opportunities. The second year rookie only managed 50 Fantasy points playing both in the ruck and up forward against a pretty average side in the Tigers. Howard could appeal to coaches looking for someone cheap but don’t expect more than 60 Fantasy points per game. Like Wright, I’d avoid Howard because we just can’t carry inconsistent scorers at this stage of the season.

Darcy Tucker (Def. $184,000, 14 be AF. $121,300, -35 DT) was a big disappointment. I was expecting so much more than 13 possessions and 43 Fantasy points from the confident and slightly cocky defender. There were so many instances where Tucker was around the ball, in the right spot but a possession just didn’t eventuate. The concern now is if Tucker holds his spot with Clancee, Ibbo and Suban all firing in the WAFL. Tucker’s teammate Brady Grey (Mid. $271,000, 27 be AF. $226,100, -14 be DT) was a little better with 63 Fantasy points but I can’t justify the extra spend.

Avoid Liam Jones (Fwd. $229,000, 42 be AF. $246,700, 47 be DT) 43 and Bailey Dale (Fwd/Mid. $195,000, 34 be AF. $193,000, 24 be DT) 26 at all costs.

One Gamers

Ben Keays (Mid. $188,000, 13 be AF. $121,300 DT) didn’t hold back in his first game of AFL footy. Playing predominately at half forward, the Lions Academy product embraced wet weather footy laying 8 tackles to go with 11 possessions, 1 goal and 64 Fantasy points. Keays did enough to hold his spot and with another encouraging performance against Port who leak a lot of Fantasy points, the future appears bright. He’s the next best trade down option behind Smith.

On debut, Christian Petracca (Fwd/Mid. $242,000, 36 be AF. $128,200 DT) appeared to struggle with the pace of AFL footy but he was still serviceable for the Dees. Improvement is inevitable and to have 16 possessions (3 goal assists), 1 mark, 5 tackles and 58 Fantasy points with little help from teammates is a decent first up effort. There’s no doubting Petracca’s talent but money is precious in AFL Fantasy and even though he’ll average 70+ I’m opting to chase the cheapies instead. He’s a lock for Dreamteam though and he should tear up the Suns this weekend.

Limited game time for Connor Blakely (Mid. $144,000, 12 be AF. $157,700 DT) wasn’t ideal. In what appears to be a managed initiation into AFL footy, Blakely had just 59% ground time against the Crows and scored 45 Fantasy points as a result. The young midfielder is a great one touch player and knows how to win the footy, he just needs the opportunity to do so. I expect more game time and Fantasy points from him this week against GWS.

We’re gona need another look at Jason Castagna (Def. $131,000, 12 be AF. $121,300 DT) 40, Kieran Lovell (Mid. $164,000, 27 be AF. $130,300 DT) 36, McKenzie Willis (Fwd/Mid. $128,000, 19 be AF. $121,300 DT) 32 and James Polkinghorne (Mid. $223,000, 44 be AF. $130,400 DT) 24. Their low scores in Round 6 have already put them in the unlikely category but I hold hope for Castagna especially.

Price and job security concerns rule out picking Jed Bews (Def. $240,000, 29 be AF. $244,600 DT) 65. I would also avoid Henry Schade (Def. $225,000, 29 be AF. $230,700 DT) 58, Fletcher Roberts (Def. $211,000, 40 be AF. $221,900 DT) 41 and Aliir Aliir (Def. $124,000, 23 be AF. $128,200 DT) 24 as they are not Fantasy relevant.

Keep Your Eye On

Screen Shot 2016-05-04 at 12.34.40 AMThe Sun’s poor showing in Geelong could open the door for Darcy MacPherson (Mid. $125,000, 24 be AF. $105,800 DT). After catching our eye in the NAB Challenge, a recent hot run of form in the NEAFL puts him ahead of most. If MacPherson is named and you opt to pick him it’s as a bench warmer only. Note that MacPherson needs to be elevated from the rookie list in order to be eligible for senior footy.

Remember Jack Trengove (Mid. $332,000, 63 be AF. $180,800 DT)!? The former number two draft pick just played his fourth consecutive VFL game and is pretty close to his long awaited AFL return. Looking at his numbers in the reserves, an average of 70 Fantasy points this season is a reasonable prediction but he’s Dreamteam relevant only due to price.

Josh Dunkley (Mid. $201,000, 9 be AF. $121,300, -53 be DT) is back in form after 34 possessions on BOG honours versus Werribee in the VFL on Saturday. I have no doubt that the young utility would add value to the Bulldogs and with Jed Adcock lacking form of late, Dunkley could be named on Thursday night. I’ve still got him in Dreamteam so fingers crossed.

 

Feel free to ask me a question below and don’t forget to add me on Twitter @JeppaDT for all things Fantasy and more. Happy trading!

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