Inside the Fantasy Numbers – Round 5
Pete looks inside the numbers that matter for Fantasy coaches.
It has been quite a volatile start to the AFL Fantasy season for most coaches, if you have avoided the bullets from injury through to playing status or even form slumps you have been spared to this point. Making decisions from what unfolds in the early part of the season can be dangerous especially as premium players are being traded in to teams for the remainder of the year now, experienced coaches are likely relying on a greater body of work and more data than just the odd break-out game.
Points Given up by Teams
Nth Melbourne are the new Richmond, they are the only team that has not conceded 1500 total game points against any opposition team this year. Don’t look now but ranked No.2 just behind the Kangaroos are the Western Bulldogs, the Dogs have also been a Fantasy nightmare for opposing teams in 2016. It will be interesting to see what numbers are produced in Round 6 when these teams meet.
|AFL FANTASY AGA||AVE|
Round 6 Game Stats
Western Bulldogs 5th consecutive game with 400+ Disposals (447 vs Brisbane & 2016 Ave 454.2)
Nth Melbourne have not conceded more than 366 Disposals to a team in 2016 (Ave 344.4 Disposals conceded)
All 5 Bulldogs opponents this year are currently ranked 11th or worse for conceding Disposals, Nth Melbourne are Ranked 2nd
Hawthorn have conceded 400+ Disposals in each of the last 3 games
Jordan Lewis 59pts vs Crows
Lowest score since R12, 2013 57pts
Has now recorded 2 scores fewer than 61pts this year (Ave 94.8pts)
Max Gawn 142pts vs Tigers
2nd highest Career score (Highest 146pts vs Bombers R15, 2015)
Scott Thompson 126pts vs Hawks
2016 Ave: 113.2
Last 4 Games: 119.3
Did You Know?
Scott Thompson has had 49 career games of 120pts or more (16.9% of all games), 122 games have gone for 100pts or more (42.1% of all games)
Andrew Gaff is the only player for West Coast to have scored 100pts or more in both travel games in 2016, no other West Coast player has scored 100pts in either game
Tom Campbell 102pts vs Brisbane (Stefan Martin)
Was a career high score & 1st time he scored over 85pts
He is eligible as FWD/RUCK
Stephen Coniglio Ave 97.0
Scores of 123 & 113 in his last 2 games
123pts vs Saints in R5 (5th Career highest)
|CLUB||PTS FOR||>100 FOR||>120 FOR||PTS AG||>100 AG||>120 AG|
3 Prime Targets after DPP Changes
Robbie Gray MID/FWD
Break Even: 144.0
2016 Average: 93.4
2015 Average: 96.8
Forward Status has been awarded to Gray, after a brilliant start to the 2016 season with scores of 125 & 127 he has struggled in his last 3 games with an average of just 71.7pts per game. Considering his high BE and volatility in scoring Gray should be considered as an upgrade to forward lines later in the year, he will be far cheaper than his current price plus it will give Coaches more time to analyse his scoring output.
James Kelly MID/DEF
Break Even: 79.0
2016 Average: 104.0
2015 Average: 81.8
Defender Status has been awarded to Kelly, after getting a 2nd chance at AFL late in his career Kelly is racking up an average of 27.0 Disposals per game. Kelly has never averaged over 100.0pts in a single season, but his weight of numbers and now DPP status make him a prime target for many Coaches. Durability may be the only concern for Kelly in 2016, he missed 5 games last year with the Cats in his final year. There are 2 thoughts for trading in Kelly, get him now because of a reasonable BE price or wait a little bit longer to see how the season unfolds for he and also the Bombers. With 3 scores over 100pts already this season, it is going to be very difficult to say no to him this week.
Bernie Vince MID/DEF
Break Even: 86.0
2016 Average: 100.0
2015 Average: 92.4
Defender Status has been awarded to Vince, with 3 consecutive scores over 100pts Christmas has come early for those with cheap backlines looking to upgrade. Since being let of the chain by the Demons at Round 8 last year Vince has averaged 99.9pts from his last 19 games which has included 11 scores of 100pts or more, Vince has a decent ceiling of points with his highest score over this period being 158pts vs Geelong in Round 12 2015. Vince is a must have for any defensive line-up as he should rank amongst the top in this category by the end of the year, his price is likely to increase gradually over the next few weeks at his current average.