Daniel Wells – Deck of DT 2016
Maybe he didn’t end up as cheap in AFL Fantasy as we thought (and rightly so), but Wells still offers a lot of value… but there are some big ifs.
Name: Daniel Wells
Club: North Melbourne
AFL Fantasy: $293,000
AFL Dream Team: $178,500
Bye Round: 15
2015 Average: 38.3
2015 Games Played: 2
Predicted Average: 80
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Why should I pick him?
In short, you’re picking Wells because you are an optimist looking for a bargain!
Or you are choosing your AFL Dream Team side! I think due to his price he’s as close to a lock as players come in AFL Dream Team so I’ll just focus on Fantasy here.
Wells has spent the last two seasons battling various leg injuries (more on that below) which has seen him miss a lot of footy, but now possibly sees him ripe for the picking.
Coming in at a tasty $293,000 with dual position eligibility as a forward and midfielder, Wells could be primed to be the steal of the season.
Looking back in the before times (when Wells was uninjured) we can see he had a pretty strong run of 80+ average seasons from 2010 to 2013.
Drilling further into this information gives us more hope as his scores generally follow a pretty tight average line of scores between 70 and 90.
For a ‘premium’ midfielder we’d think this was pretty average. But by selecting Wells this year you’re doing so in the hopes that he makes money to upgrade.
He’s currently priced at an average of 38, so if he can come out and score in his average range then we’d see a rough price rise to about $440,000 before he possibly starts missing his BE.
Plus if he’s producing those tight average scores that he has in the past then it is more likely that his price will plateau instead of haemorrhaging. Meaning that even if you aren’t ready or have more pressing trade concerns at the time he has hit his BE, you can feel pretty safe knowing that you could possibly get another 80 score and he wont drop much cash until you’re ready.
While there is a bit of doubt on whether Wells will get regular games this year (more on that below, again), we know that the Kangaroo’s are in desperate need of his run, carry and silky decision making so fingers crossed he’ll slip right into the team.
Why shouldn’t I pick him?
Wells is on his last legs with North Melbourne. Ok… I may have been attempting a terrible pun there but still, this guy has racked up all kinds of leg injuries over the last 2 years. The list so far reads ‘Foot, Ankle, Calf, Shin, Achilles’ as all injured at different times over the past 2 years. With the last one being the Calf injury which was in late August last year. This does not inspire much confidence that you wont be burning a trade early if finds a brand new part of his leg to injure.
The other concern is wondering whether Wells even has a place in North Melbourne’s best 22 this year.
Wells has crossed over into the over 30’s now, while the Kangaroo’s are still believing that they will be contending for the flag this year, they are very mindful of getting experience into their younger players. They’ve gotten along reasonable well without him in recent years, developing their younger talent further and spending their 1st draft pick last year to bring in another ‘established’ (and similarly fantasy priced) midfielder in Jed Anderson. Will they be fighting each other for the same spot?
While on the subject of Jed Anderson, for a similar price and sharing the bye, you’d really only want to be taking the risk on one of these guys.
Price could also be a determining factor on whether Wells makes it into your Fantasy side. At close to $300,000 he is definitely an awkwardly priced investment for a player who we’ll be treating as a cash cow.
Deck of DT Rating.
JACK – If everything goes right for Wells this year then he could certainly be your Ace in the hole, but that would mean ALOT would have to go right.
He would need to secure his spot, not get injured and average close to or above his career average.
But if these stars do align for the Roo then we’re going to be dealing with a few very smug coaches who picked him from the start. Will you be one?
… Unless you’re playing AFL Dream Team, then like I said before, he’s a lock!
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