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The Preseason

Drawing Board 2015 Popularity: December

Prices are being leaked and with almost 2000 teams in the Drawing Board, let’s look at the numbers.

Since our last update, DT Live’s Drawing Board is closing in on 2000 teams entered. During this time all positions have been revealed and the magic number has been calculated with half of the prices released in AFL Fantasy.

Although all prices aren’t known, Chad has pumped in the ones that are released and updated others accordingly. It is worth noting that not all prices will be 100% accurate as there seem to be a few anomalies with discounting. SuperCoach and Real Dream Team have announced their prices and subsequently, the positions. AFL Fantasy positions will be the same as these are supplied by Champion Data.

Click here to create your own teams with DT Live.

As we say goodbye to 2014, let’s have a look at the Drawing Board teams and what’s happened over the last month or so.

SWAN’S DPP MAKES HIM THE BIGGEST MOVER

Last time I had a look at the Drawing Board numbers, the original Fantasy Pig, Dane Swan, appeared in 26% of teams. That was when we assumed he would be classified as a MID only. That all changed from December 12 when Swanny was announced to be a FWD/MID in 2015.

Over the course of a couple of days his ownership doubled and now he is the second most popular player on the Drawing Board behind bargain ruckman Matthew Kreuzer.

Firstly, I was surprised he didn’t have as much love – even just as a MID – due to a shocking 2014. He was locked and loaded in my team regardless. The DPP now has made him a no-brainer. On DT Live’s Drawing Board users are able to put in projected scores for their selected players. Swan is projected to average 104.1 from the 89.9% of users who have selected him thus far.

Dane Swan - Drawing Board popularity doubled when announced to be a FWD/MID in 2015.

Dane Swan – Drawing Board popularity doubled when announced to be a FWD/MID in 2015.

OTHER DPPs HAVE CHANGED THINGS

When we heard of Swanny’s FWD status added, we saw some other movement that has both increased and decreased player ownership.

Brendon Goddard and Brett Deledio are also named up as FWD/MIDs now. They now appear in 49.7% and 41% of teams respectively. On the flipside, Patrick Dangerfield went from being in over 50% of teams to now appear in just 8.2% of Drawing Board sides. Dangerfield is a MID only in 2015. Other players who lost their DPP eligibility also saw a big drop in ownership – which makes perfect sense!

We’ve been blessed up forward with these new DPPs which may make it quite a unique line. There will be a lot of teams that look towards these gifts, but guys like Lance Franklin (see Rainman’s awesome Deck of DT on him) are now looking quite unique. He started in around 30% of teams in November but now appears in less than 15%.

The backline lost a lot of premium DEF/MIDs such as Sam Mitchell, Jarrad McVeigh and Pearce Hanley. This in turn raised the value of my boy, Michael Hibberd. Before the announcement he was in around 35% of teams. Now he hovers around 55% ownership. I reckon I’ll be writing about Hibbo in the Deck of DT before the end of the series.

Patrick Dangerfield's stocks dropped dramatically after being named as a MID only for AFL Fantasy 2015.

Patrick Dangerfield’s stocks dropped dramatically after being named as a MID only for AFL Fantasy 2015.

THE COOKIE CUTTER TEAM OF POPULARITY

Going through the most popular list (see table below), I’ve put together a cookie cutter team. That is, a team that is made up of the most popular players in the Drawing Board. The way it worked out, the last player selected for it was the 26.7% owned Heritier Lumumba… the 33rd most popular player on the list. Only Nat Fyfe, Robbie Gray and Ben Reid who were slightly more popular missed out as their respective lines were full when I filled the team.

Anyway, here’s what the team looks like. Not too bad to be honest! It has uses $9,585,000 of the $10,000,000 salary cap. The bye structure is 8/13/9. Not awful considering that zero thought went into it. Using the projected averages by DT Live users, the team would score 2031 in round one.

Cookie Cutter 2015 AFL Fantasy team based on DT Live player popularity as at 30 December 2014.

Cookie Cutter 2015 AFL Fantasy team based on DT Live player popularity as at 30 December 2014.

Please discuss this team in the comments!

THE TOP 50 MOST POPULAR PLAYERS… SO FAR

Here’s a look at the 50 most popular players selected by DT Live users so far. Starting with Kreuzer at 95.2% ownership through to Barlow at 20.8%, we get a good look at which players coaches are keen on as we head into the new year. The projected average comes from the data that DT Live users have input when plugging their teams in.

First NameSurnamePositionPriceProjected
Average
Ownership %
MatthewKreuzerRUC$24400082.495.2
DaneSwanFWD/MID$530000104.189.9
MatthewLeuenbergerRUC$27700081.988.5
DanielRichMID$2680008187.9
JonathonGriffinRUC$13000060.586
GaryAblettMID$675000119.675.6
BeauWatersDEF$34100081.374.7
MitchellClarkFWD$22300068.867.7
NathanJ. BrownDEF$1200004666.9
Nathanvan BerloMID$27200081.557.6
BrendanWhitecrossDEF$25900071.756.7
MichaelHibberdDEF$50600093.554.8
NathanKrakouerFWD/MID$12000059.852.2
JesseHoganFWD$19400063.652
BrendonGoddardFWD/MID$550000100.349.7
GarrickIbbotsonDEF$33600079.648.9
MaxKingRUC$12000040.243
BrettDeledioFWD/MID$548000100.141
DustinMartinFWD/MID$553000100.839.6
BlakeAcresMID$16600062.535.1
AaronVandenbergMID$12000057.234.6
TimMembreyFWD$16500061.134
PatrickCrippsMID$16300066.731.7
ZakJonesDEF$15700056.331.7
IsaacHeeneyMID$22600070.830.9
ScottSelwoodMID$45800097.930.3
BenReidFWD$1780006430.1
RyanGriffenMID$48500099.329.8
RobbieGrayFWD/MID$545000100.729.5
ScottPendleburyMID$614000111.329.2
PaulSeedsmanDEF$36300081.728.1
NathanFyfeMID$579000111.427.8
HeritierLumumbaDEF/MID$40200083.126.7
MasonCoxFWD/RUC$12000053.526.7
TomRockliffMID$763000126.926.4
JoelHamlingDEF$12000043.626.4
LukeHodgeDEF/MID$55000097.526.1
JackMartinFWD$28500077.525.3
ChristianPetraccaFWD/MID$2970007325.3
DanielMarkworthFWD$12000053.324.7
MatthewDickDEF/MID$12000047.624.2
RobbieTarrantFWD$1200004922.8
JoshMcGuinnessDEF$14200053.122.8
KaneLambertFWD/MID$1200005621.9
NickMalceskiDEF$52100093.821.9
KadeSimpsonDEF$52100093.821.6
DayneBeamsMID$609000111.621.6
BrodieSmithDEF$46500088.421.3
BenNewtonMID$19200066.720.8
MichaelBarlowMID$627000112.220.8

PLEASE NOTE: If viewing on a mobile device, turn it to ‘landscape’ mode to view all contents of the table.

 

Make your own AFL Fantasy teams now over at www.dtlive.com.au. Prices will be updated as the AFL release them, but most are looking pretty good at this stage. The Drawing Board is an awesome resource and Chad is always willing to hear feedback to make the product better. As well as AFL Fantasy Classic, you can create SuperCoach and Real Dream Team squads. Don’t forget that DT Live will have live fantasy scores during the NAB Challenge and throughout the season. Click here to start creating your teams.

Also – don’t forget the best place to discuss YOUR team is over in the My Team post.

12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. Rainman

    December 30, 2014 at 8:30 pm

    Awesome Warnie thanks. Very interesting. At least a dozen players I wouldn’t touch but a fair few that remain unique :)
    Hoping this becomes a regular article through the year.

    • Warnie

      Warnie

      December 30, 2014 at 8:39 pm

      I’ll keep a regular pre-season one up to date. Makes for some interesting reading to see what people are up to. And like you said, see who ends up being unique. The team above looks quite vanilla, but I’m sure we’ll all find our own uniques to throw in there and take a punt on. I don’t like that backline much.

  2. Money

    December 30, 2014 at 8:35 pm

    Very interesting team! Surprised Scott Selwood is so high! I’d say many people will start with that top 4 forward line including myself!

    • Warnie

      Warnie

      December 30, 2014 at 8:40 pm

      That forward line looks like it will be a very popular starting one.

      • Money

        December 30, 2014 at 11:18 pm

        As someone with that set up, you’re hoping that people only end up starting with 3 or even two of those 4 players but they’re just too good to refuse, especially if you can afford it!

  3. Chad

    December 31, 2014 at 10:54 am

    The fact that max king is in the most popular players just highlights how irrelevant ruck 4 has become. Good thing RDT and SC are on the front foot

  4. 19pizzujak

    December 31, 2014 at 12:42 pm

    Great read! Who do you think would be better to start with, Griffen, Steven or swallow?

    • Warnie

      Warnie

      January 1, 2015 at 10:17 am

      Steven… however, you’d get a better answer in the ‘My Team’ post!

    • We Got Big Cox

      January 1, 2015 at 11:30 am

      you recon attack dog was tagged last year at WB, just wait to see him at GWS mate, he will never see the pill this year. a no for me.

      swallow has played a handful of games in 2 years

      steven has the most potential, talked up last year as a cotchin equivalent by some, i tend to agree, and while monty is still kicking on at the saints, he shouldnt receive the first tag.

  5. Fat Knife

    December 31, 2014 at 11:41 pm

    This was a great article thanks.

    I would really love it if you could do a an article that explains the breakeven formula. I really struggled making sense of it last year and having a better understanding of it all would have made some of my trade decisions a whole lot easier.

  6. We Got Big Cox

    January 1, 2015 at 11:25 am

    Rocky only at only 26% – Roy you gotta get on the podcast again soon and flog this guy a bit more mate.

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