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The Fantasy Analyzer- Downgrade Delirium

In past seasons of AFL Fantasy, we have had two weeks to look at the rookies free of price change before bringing them into our squads. Of course this year the prices have been moving after just one game, a frightening thought to the most dedicated of fantasy coaches. So how should we counteract this rule change?

In past seasons of AFL Fantasy (or DreamTeam as it was previously known),we have had two weeks to look at the rookies free of price change before bringing them into our squads. Of course this year the prices have been moving after just one game, a frightening thought to the most dedicated of fantasy coaches. So how should we counteract this rule change? Should we refuse to pay the heightened dollar for a rook, or should we not look to skimp so much?

Rookies That Have Grown in Value

Screen Shot 2014-04-24 at 9.09.29 am

Nick Robertson has been one such rookie who has already undergone two price rises

Nick Robertson, Tom Cutler and Matt Crouch are primary candidates for this category. The Lions Robertson has accumulated an extra $21,448 to his price tag, whilst Cutler and Crouch have added $11,000 and $80,497 respectively. In laymen’s terms, especially with Crouch, we have missed the boat. Last season I would’ve suggested that we wait and try and find cheaper rooks who are about to play their third game of league football, but that was in a season where we had two games before the prices began to boom! We have no similar waiting period this year and thus it’s much more difficult to bring in a rookie who hasn’t changed in price. That’s the main con, losing cash for future upgrades, but some would suggest the pro’s outweigh the con’s when considering a trade between these two rookie categories. For one, bringing in a Robertson allows us to have a general understanding of his job security. We also have two scores to assess and determine what we expect his future scoring output to provide. These simple reasonings just go to show that both sides of the coin must be considered…

Rookies yet to Debut

Honeychurch

Mitch Honeychurch has yet to play a game and thus comes at an absolute bargain basement price!

This is where we get the greatest bang for our buck. The likes of Honeychurch, Lennon, Salem and Morabito fall into this category and if they’re selected in weeks to come, the expectation is that they’ll increase in value from the get-go. In stark contrast to what I previously mentioned with the rookies that had grown in value, we don’t have any ability to assess future job security, scoring potential and sub risk. This might not be especially worrisome later in the year, where the best coaches will have 1 strong bench contributor on each line to ward off any potential late out’s and the like. Unfortunately for us fantasy coaches, we are far from this stage and can’t really look much past the byes right at the moment. No matter what sort of position you’re in bye structure wise, if you pick up a Honeychurch and find out two weeks later that he has been ousted for the Round 8 clash, you can count another donut to your bye structure over that week. Furthermore the lack of job security can hurt your earning potential, something which isn’t a likely issue for owners of rookies who have strong job security.

 Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, determining the gamble or risk of any one move differentiates from coach to coach. Both strategies are fraught with danger. Bring in Honeychurch and you may have just managed to bring in the strongest scorer of the second half of the season in Dane Swan, but the young Dog may be dropped just a week later heading into the hazardous byes. Get Robertson and have a strong rookie who maintains a strong output, but lose points on the difference of a Griffen to a Swan. So let me know how you want to play it. Are you a risk taker or are you willing to settle for less and sleep easy at night? The floor (or poll) is yours!

 

AFL Fantasy: Trade or Hold Zorko?

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Remember to give me a follow on twitter @B_Gogos, where I’m talking fantasy football 24/7. Good luck with your side heading into Anzac Day! Should be a ripping day of football and I for one can’t wait!

29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. Albert Lloyd

    April 24, 2014 at 5:52 pm

    Price rises after one game.

    Man, I wish I had have gone with Fantasy this year.

    Kicking myself.

    • poissonsale

      April 24, 2014 at 7:41 pm

      Why as RDT is the bees knees and Fantasy sucks. Having said that my team is going the best in supercoach. Its 5 weeks in and I still have not looked at my Fantasy Leagues as I have no interest.

      • Stuart

        Stuart

        April 24, 2014 at 10:18 pm

        think he’s taking the piss

        • poissonsale

          April 25, 2014 at 9:59 am

          No not taking the piss as the old way of waiting 2 weeks for price rises is the way to go. Currently my Fantasy Team will be full of premos after the byes so it will be boring thereafter as most teams will be similar by then. At least with RDT and limited to 30 trades a fair bit more strategy is involved.

          • Stuart

            Stuart

            April 25, 2014 at 11:06 am

            Exactly, hence Albert is taking the piss! And you couldn’t see it.

    • Shags

      April 25, 2014 at 11:21 am

      Actually the one game price change rule is fine. Thats not the issue with fantasy.

  2. Nasi Lemak

    April 24, 2014 at 5:59 pm

    Mithcell or Rocky

  3. Sam Bowler

    April 24, 2014 at 6:10 pm

    Wrong section mate but id go rocky if you can afford it. Hes killing it at the moment.

  4. Bailey

    April 24, 2014 at 6:52 pm

    Hey guys, should I trade Watson or Tyson for M Crouch? Watson has a break even of 136 and Tyson has a break even of 71 or something and could easily get that. He has 1 bad game. If I trade Watson, I can put Tyson and Dunstan on my bench and start Polec and M Crouch

  5. Gunner6288

    Gunner6288

    April 24, 2014 at 7:06 pm

    Thing is, Crouch may have 200k left in him

    • Stuart

      Stuart

      April 24, 2014 at 8:46 pm

      Yeah, I just can’t let him go when he has a negative breakeven and pumped out a 110 in 3 quarters

      • Stuart

        Stuart

        April 24, 2014 at 10:07 pm

        on second thoughts I’m probably going ellis to robertson (named on the ball, cheaper, didn’t get a cramped hammy) and then langdon to mcveigh

  6. Ben

    April 24, 2014 at 7:37 pm

    What about Mitch Hallahan? By the way great segment Benny!

    • Ben Gogos

      April 24, 2014 at 11:16 pm

      Cheers bud! Hallahan is hard to pick because it’s only been a quarter of footy. I’d suggest if he can have a good one on Sunday the role is his till Shiels comes back (Y)

  7. Ben

    April 24, 2014 at 7:38 pm

    What about Mitch hallahan from Hawthorn?

  8. Derek

    April 24, 2014 at 8:24 pm

    Tyson > Honeychurch
    Ellis > Hallahan
    then 2 premo upgrades next week?

    Struggling to choose

    • Matt

      April 24, 2014 at 9:17 pm

      To choose?

  9. Matt

    April 24, 2014 at 9:16 pm

    Yeo>Cutler
    Tyson> Swan

    Can’t decide between playing Cutler or Langdon. Cutler should have more scoring potential against st kilda whereas I don’t know how Langdon will cope with Anzac Day, any one else’s thought would be greatly appreciated :)

  10. T.Mac-37

    April 24, 2014 at 9:26 pm

    Thoughts on trades:
    Mitchell to Fasolo.
    Shieks to Crouch or field Lloyd for Mitchell and go Tyson to swan or Ellis to Robertson.

  11. Alex

    April 24, 2014 at 9:28 pm

    Who do you think will play games through the bye rounds out of hallahan, O’Rourke or Honeychurch?

    • Angus

      April 25, 2014 at 11:07 am

      MONEYCHURCH

  12. Tom

    April 24, 2014 at 9:33 pm

    honeychurch

  13. Pete

    April 24, 2014 at 9:43 pm

    Can’t decide between hibberd or mcveigh ??

    • Lewis

      April 25, 2014 at 7:58 am

      McVeigh they have Melbourne this week and should average better over the long run

    • Shags

      April 25, 2014 at 11:25 am

      I think Hibberd. He benefits from bombers high possession game.

  14. Bjorn

    April 24, 2014 at 10:49 pm

    Will we know if Honeychurch/Crouch are playing before final lockout?

  15. Matt

    April 25, 2014 at 7:10 am

    I’m ok with waiting for the second week, as we saw with Hallahan, and even Lloyd, the very first weeks gains are always stunted a bit since they’re playing off a BE of 30 odd,if they happen to have a big game the price rise is likely to be manageable, and the second week boost will be bigger even if they underperform. Lloyds 70 for instance made 10k more than his 107, so in a sense cashing in on a big performance isn’t dead, just weakened a little.

  16. Tigers

    April 25, 2014 at 11:24 am

    Well said matt… I agree mate

  17. Jason

    April 30, 2014 at 11:38 am

    The only rook I would consider downgrading to without playing of the ones remaining is Nathan Bock with his good JS and good scoring potential for a rook, he’s the only one I’d consider to take without playing. The others I’ll just wait and see

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