Trigger Happy: Round 7
This week JimBob celebrates the life and times of the Hoff, which is no doubt going to bite him in the ass!
Well there has been enough said about last week so I won’t go there! It did definitely sort the Johnsons from the Westhoffs! Which one were you?
Now is the time that you need to consider your future trades and the byes. The majority of trades you make in the next four weeks, these players are likely to be in your side for the bye so its probably a good time to glaze over your team and have an idea of who you are keeping and culling between then and now. I personally think job security of our cows should probably get a little bit more weighting during this time, before they are culled in fear of losing $2k. It’s a fine line to generate cash, improve your team and make sure you have a good blend of bye rounds AND put up with the general week to week problems. Just too easy really!
Seems to be a relief down back with Heppell returning for his coaches and Gibbs almost named so should be a shoo-in next week for those patient coaches. The Portlets in Stevenson and Heath hold their spots and both have pretty gettable break evens if you have to keep them, while ol Grimey is on the LTI list and needs to be traded ASAP.One bloke who won’t get his break even this week is Beau Waters! His name is a bit mud at the moment!
Nick Vlastuin ($147,700 b/e-38) – Probably the most solid pick for a rookie this week if you are looking to generate some cash. While he wont make a whole heap downgrading from a portlett, he will make a whole lot more cash in the next 2 weeks (projected $70 odd k) and has the best job security of the rooks coming through but is always a chance for the rest.
Heath Shaw ($417,400 b/e 44) Do you want to hop on this roller coaster? So far he’s knocked out 3 x 100’s and 2 x 60’s so he’s due a 60! averaged 88 last year so is likely to win you as many matches as he loses. In form and good value.
Jarrod Harbrow – $410,500 b/e 59 While not exactly a household name down back, Harbrow has been pretty consistent this year (CR 13.2 actually) averaging 90 so far this season and only owned by 3 per cent of teams. Does share the bye with Essendon and Carlton backs though.
It also looks like people who traded Heppell out last week are trading him back in this week! Bling bling trades ain’t a thing!
Cotchin named in the outs and everyone jumps ship quicker than Buddy’s form? More about that later……How come everyone is keeping Stanton? Other coaches think Ollie Wines time is up with a b/e of 84 but once again I’m not so sure…
Andrew Swallow $509,900 b/e 100 Swallow is excellent value at the moment. averaging 109.5 and only just over $500k, I think he will stay at this average for the rest of the season . Also handy with a rd 12 bye as premo mids from these teams are hard to come by (Scooter Selwood has put his hand up which is nice)
Luke Shuey $505,800 b/e 78 – after taking a couple of games to get going Shuey has pumped out 4 tons in 4 games and is now averaging 111 in his last three. I’d personally go Swallow but only 6000 coaches own him so he could win you a game or two. Round 12 bye again.
Jesse Lonergan ($127,000) may have only had 50 points but it did include 7 tackles! A pretty reliable downgrade but still have another week to have a second look.
Let’s put the mockers on rucks now – Isn’t it nice that we haven’t had to worry about rucks this year? All they need to do now is score some F#^&ng points! Coxy is the exception, but guess who is back to take his ruck time? My conundrum this week is bloody Sauce Jacobs – I didn’t think the sun in Adelaide was that hot?
Finally a genuine fallen premo to jump on! There are a lot of trades being invested in the forward line and most are genuine upgrades – and to my pleasure that includes Westhoff trades! Who down there can make our teams better?
Stevie J $543,700 b/e 58 Is almost the must have player of the round and the second most traded in player. Owns the second highest average in the comp and doesn’t look like slowing down anytime soon.
Dale Thomas – $411,800 b/e 68 – The poor man’s Stevie J. A great addition to your forward line if you cant afford the aforementioned. Floated around at half back for a 121 last weekend, but isn’t likely to get that freedom against the evil Ross Lyon. Is still likely to be in the top 6 forwards at the end of the year and a bargain at this price. Easy decision.
Chris Knights – $323,300 b/e 7 A poor man’s Daisy Thomas? While not an upgrade per se, Knights is definitely a good option this week. Requires pocket change to trade up from a rookie and is playing a pretty outside game at the Tigs. Should have been mentioned last week but still great value this week. Showed us way back in 2007 what he could do, averaging 87 in 21 games and I think he will go close to that again.
Stubbie’s Holders and Folders
Trent Cotchin – I can’t find any information suggesting that Cotch will be out for more than a week and has likely been given the week off to rest for that knock he got against Freo a fortnight ago. Let’s build a team people, not just swap the guns we already have! HOLD
Beau Waters – To bring in a premium who is a late out and then doesn’t play the next week? geez that rage trade must have felt good! FOLD
Ollie Wines – Where is the loyalty? He should be a vital cog in everyone’s midfield until the byes. Yes he will plateau and lose a few thousand dollars, but has made $200k and is averaging 90 – I’m gonna need his points! HOLD
My Boy ‘The Hoff’. I even gave him benefit of the doubt last week. From day dot I didn’t buy his fools gold stayed well clear of his roller coaster. Fortunately Westhoff proved me right and returned scores of 45 and 33 in the last 2 weeks seeing his price plummet. Now facing a massive breakeven of 209, he is a pretty good chance to return to his original price 3 weeks after peaking! FOLD
What a handy segue into…
The Ty Vickery Award
While I understand Westhoff was generally only brought in to make cash and was never really seen as a keeper, he still teaches us some valuable lessons.
1. A leopard rarely changes his spots. Yes he has a big ceiling, but also has a low floor. Consistently inconsistent.
2. Planned trades are dangerous In a perfect world, all Westhoff owners would have done a straight swap to Stevie J last week but then came along the variables. Backline carnage and donuts everywhere, that trade had to be put on the shelf for a week. This is exactly the reason why I never bring in a player with a plan to trade him out at a certain stage of the season
There were other contenders…..
Birchall/Waters/ Hartlett/Burgoyne – All four would have been popular ins for either Gibbs or Heppell, with Birch, Hartlett and Burgoyne putting up below-par scores in our hour of need, while Waters didn’t even show up! To rub salt into the would, he hasn’t even suited up this week!
But there was only one person who was ever going to get this award this week!
Westhoff is likely going to come out and smash it this week now, and lose me my draft league match, in which I will never hear the end of.
Another good week for The Running Man this week, I never thought I would be so happy with 1940! Had some awful contributors like Birchall Cotchin, Motlop, Jacobs and Stevenson, but was rewarded for my loyalty in Bartel and Dangerfield and a handy score from the newly recruited Ellis (85) and McKenzie (80). Up to 415 overall now and 300 odd points of top spot. From what I have learnt, there are always going to be ebbs and flows of every player in DT and there seems to be too much knee jerking over players with a couple of bad scores or a week off. I’m pretty confident to say that players with proven history will reward you in the long run if you show the faith and ride the odd bad score of theirs. As last week showed me, if a couple of players have quiet games, odds on a couple of other will have belters. It’s pretty unlikely that they all go bang in one week, but it’s also pretty unlikely that they all have shockers. Consistency is the name of the game! Bit stuck on trades this week with Stevenson to Vlastuin locked, but unsure if I will dump Jacobs for Daisy or upgrade Dwyer to Knights. Currently looking at the latter as I like Knights sitting in F6!
Good luck this week and as Yazz told us in 1988: ‘The only way is up.”
As always give me a follow on Twitter @jimbobholder