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The Numbers – Round 4

What a week of footy; and more importantly – what a week for numbers! Get around The Numbers for Round 4 as we look at the week that was in a more… statistical light.

TheNumbers

Numbers… let’s be honest – it’s what DT is all about. Price changes; averages; break-evens… the list goes on. In 2013, on a weekly basis I will strip the records clean and scour the AFL for the numbers different to those we spend our days staring at… Staring at in the hope that we’ll have a fantasy football epiphany; and all of the secrets of the DT Universe will be revealed.

The Numbers… a unique look at the world of Fantasy Football.

1Coach by the name of Mark Neeld who will be extremely relieved after his side’s drought-breaking win over GWS on the weekend. After more than a few shaky moments during the first three quarters, where it looked like GWS would triumph – the Dees kicked away in the fourth, taking advantage of some of the worst umpiring decisions (all against GWS) of 2013. Whilst only beating last year’s wooden-spooners in what some would say a fortuitous victory, Neeld is safe – for now. How much time the Demons’ hierarchy give him is the question he’ll no doubt have at the back of his mind.

1.28% of teams who currently own current competition points leader Kane Cornes. With a Round 4 average of 129.75, he is in the form of his life. How long will this run continue for? How long is a piece of string?

2 – Clubs that popular clubman Brendan Goddard has shed tears in whilst wearing their colours. In an emotional post-match interview with Cam Mooney, Goddard admitted to being quite emotional about playing his old club, before breaking into a tear-fest. What do you think? Should he suck it up; or is it okay for footy players to cry over an ex?

3Dustin Martin crashed down to earth again this week after his previous huge score. Put in another increasing well-known ‘3-Quarter’ performance as he fell away for a disappointing 58 DT points against the Pies. Maybe we should nickname him Dustin ‘3Q’ Martin?

4Quarters of football that injury-magnet Scott ‘Gumby’ Gumbleton got through on the weekend without hurting himself. Time will tell how long this amazing streak lasts, but if he keeps performing this well (18d and 4.2 goals) then the Bombers will be very happy he chose to stay loyal to the red and black after several cross-town offers in the trade period.

7.7% of coaches who took the plunge on underpriced gun forward Travis Cloke at the start of 2013. I was one who had him in my team then took him out for other, ‘safer’ options such as Dayne Zorko and Jimmy Bartel. He scored an impressive 147 on the weekend against the Tigers, and now averages an awe-inspiring 108.2 points so far in 2013. Hands up if you wrote him off prior to Round 1? *curses in highsight*

8Total points between popular Port rookie defenders Lewis Stevenson, Campbell Heath and Jasper Pittard as at Round 4. In what is becoming the handiest rookie trio this year, the boys in black n teal are growing nicely as cash cows and proving solid players in our D5 and D6 spots in defence. The only problem? Trying to work out which 2 will score the highest each week. Now, Jeppa will no doubt go through who to pick on your ground this week. But based on the stats so far, each player has been the highest scorer of the three at least once, with the same to be said for the lowest scorer. At this point though, I’d suggest your order be Pittard, Heath then Stevenson.

18Touches managed by early-season bolter Andrew Swallow in his side’s win over Brisbane at the weekend. In a rare quiet game for the Kangaroo’s captain, he only notched up 6 kicks and 5 tackles to tally a paltry 64 DT points in a winning team. He joins the likes of Watson (65), Murphy (84), Selwood (66), Ablett (84) and JP Kennedy (86) to have had the odd poor game inside the opening 4 rounds. Expect the champion midfielder to bounce back this weekend against the Hawks.

74Hands up if you traded in Sydney breakout contender Luke Parker this week. This would’ve been one of the worst trades you could’ve made as he went missing to post a low score of 41 on Friday night. The difference in his best (high score of 115) and worst (Round 4) is still too wide to suggest Parker as a reliable option in 2013 – however all things considered, this kid will be a star – it’s just a matter of time. The Swans have developed their midfield beautifully as the ageing stars of Bolton, Goodes and ROK are quickly making way for the talented and hardened youth brigade of JPK, Jack, Hannebery and Parker.

204The highest recognised DT score of our generation was posted on that fateful day in R10 last year. It was a day when Star Hawk and gun forward Buddy Franklin smashed the North Melbourne team with one of the great modern-day games. It may be a case of ‘shotgun not’ for the North defenders on Sunday as Buddy will look to capitalise on his team’s form and rack up another massive score for his owners as he looks to once again kick a bag on the Roos.

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

 

The Benchmark

It’s the girls’ turn for a shout-out this week, as Kimmy_Kat coach Kim topped the Leaderboard for Round 4 with a huge score of 2355 – the highest of 2013 to date! Her gun-heavy backline of Birchall, Heppell, Gibbs, Goddard and Grimes fired for her, with Goodes not letting anybody down with his handy 115. Here’s where it get’s interesting – she only has 2 ‘Guns’ in the midfield as she backed in the Swan/Ablett combo to take her through the opening of the season – with Wines, O’Meara, Jones and Whitfield holding the fort before upgrade time. Maric and Roughead combined beautifully in her ruck division, before her star forward line of Hoff, Cloke, Rocky, JJK, Cox and Buddy catapulted her team to the top of the tree for the week. I question whether this structure can get her into the top 100 at this stage due to the vulnerability of the midfield rookies – but she’s beating me at this point, so keep on keeping on!

 

Talk of the Town

After notching up 2 x DT Talk Golden Stubby awards inside the first four weeks, Port young gun Oliver Wines has proved to live up to the expectation and be an absolute revelation for DT Coaches so far. His opening month in the AFL has brought about 2 tons (and a 99), giving him an average of 102 points. Selected on the ball every week, he has AFL Rising Star written all over him. And at just $2.50 odds – the punters agree.

 

Whore of the Week

With several notable mentions this week, including Birchall (151) and Cloke (147) – there was one who stood out above the rest, and that man is Kane Cornes. A previous DT Stud of yesteryear, Cornes is turning back the clock as he leads the competition in points scored with 519 for a Swan-like average of 129.75. His performance on the weekend against a fighting Gold Coast was simple sublime as he went on to accrue 35d (25 kicks), 16 marks and a huge 156 DT points. Time will tell exactly how long his form holds up, but given the form of Port Adelaide – who knows. Either way – a well-deserved nominee for this round’s WotW.

 

The Round Up

Highlights – Westhoff continued to repay the faith with another ton (121); whilst Birchall is having a ball mopping up down the back for the Hawks after a career-high 151 against Freo. Cloke (147) kicked a career-high 7 goals and GAJ overcame his supposed hand injury to score a solid 118. Wines (100) and Goodes (115)

Lowlights – If you jumped on Dale Thomas early, you would’ve been disappointed with his sub-affected 35; whilst there was once again a raft of underperforming superstars, with Swallow (64), Bartel (66), JP Kennedy (59), Shaw (66) and Deledio (80) all failing to get close to their respective averages.

Team McRath – My season is back on track after last week’s debacle. Swanny finally delivered as captain with a handy 130; whilst Hoff was a great inclusion and Berger continues his good run of form back from injury with a nice 86. 2085 points and a rise in rankings gave me something to smile about as I somehow managed 4 wins.

How was Round 4 for you? Are you sailing forward or stuck in reverse as our teams start to really take shape.

Feel free to shout out some feedback in the comments, or perhaps put forward your own creative Numbers for the week. Also – if you’re not already… follow me on the Tweetvine @McRathDT

174 Comments

174 Comments

  1. dirk diggler

    April 23, 2013 at 2:51 pm

    JPK to Mayes
    Suban to Birchall

    Giggity

  2. Jared

    April 23, 2013 at 3:00 pm

    Backs: Goddard, Heppell, Gibbs, Birchall, Goodes, Stevenson
    Mids: Ablett, Swallow, Cotchin, Watson, Shuey, Moloney, Wines, O’Meara
    Rucks: Jacobs, Leuenberger
    Fwds: Franklin, Bartel, Zorko, Dwyer, Neade, Macaffer

    Rd 5 trade 1: Macaffer – Mayes definitely
    Rd 5 trade 2: Shuey – Hodge/Masten OR Zorko – JJK/Stokes/Garlett/Cloke?

    Which one should I pick out of trade 2… Shuey or Zorko and who for?!

  3. Scott

    April 23, 2013 at 3:24 pm

    Leave Shuey in as he is been getting some reasonable scores, and eagles play Port and Bulldogs next. Zorko is a dud atm

  4. Scott

    April 23, 2013 at 3:25 pm

    Kennedy or cloak. id go kennedy but im biased because im an eagles fan

    • stimpy

      April 23, 2013 at 8:00 pm

      or lecras

  5. crouchy35

    April 23, 2013 at 3:25 pm

    23,053 – Number of coaches that will be spewing to hear Pearce Hanley has accepted a one match ban.

    2 – Number of options i’m considering: Birchall or Hartlett?

    3 – Number of dot points its taken me to ask a question and not offend anyone :)

    • Stegga

      April 23, 2013 at 3:34 pm

      haha nice one mate.
      Im not really gonna give you advice who to choose but i wont be surprised if North play a pretty hard tag on Birchall this week. He has been instrumental in Hawthorns form over the last few weeks and with Schoenmakers going down, Birchall might have to stick a little closer to home. Another point is everytime the DTTalk community start raving about someone or jumping on 1 player they go to shit that week! lol
      He will still be top 5 defender come years end so you cant go to wrong with bringing him in, but Hartlett is priced very low atm, i would go him.

      Personally i see all my backline defenders with still alot of $$ to be made, so i have actually finished my fwd line with all premo’s, instead of culling cows before they have matured. thats just my thoughts.

      • Stegga

        April 23, 2013 at 3:36 pm

        * rookie defenders * not backline defenders lol

  6. PK

    April 23, 2013 at 3:26 pm

    Who would you guys start as my last forward? Dwyer or Mayes? Mayes is in good form but Dwyer might kill it being an Anzac game.. Thoughts?

    • Jarrad

      April 23, 2013 at 3:59 pm

      Definitely Mayes, he’s up against Melbourne.

    • Magpie28

      April 23, 2013 at 4:16 pm

      Why would you want to know this today? You’ve got two days to make this call, as well as a team selection.

      Sheer madness!

      • Shags

        April 23, 2013 at 5:09 pm

        Its good to have your plans and backup plans sorted before teamsheets are in.

  7. Magpie28

    April 23, 2013 at 3:35 pm

    10,000 – the number of spots I’ve dropped since round one (1,200th) despite not scoring below 2000

    Crikey!

  8. Joe

    April 23, 2013 at 3:53 pm

    2 – The number of replies until someone puts their team up on every article.
    0 – The number of decisions some DTers make for themselves each week, nobody knows for sure which rookies to play on the field unless it is someone obvious such as Wines!
    1 – The number of times someone putting a reply on each article such express their appreciation for the work gone into each article.

    Great work as always McRath, still can’t get over how much work you guys put into this site every week!

    • Paulus

      April 23, 2013 at 4:57 pm

      Well said Joe. Thanks McRath.

  9. Dave

    April 23, 2013 at 4:15 pm

    Trades are killing me, so I was after some opinions, heres my team:

    DEF: Gibbs Goddard Hanley Goodes Pittard Stevenson (Heath, Terlich)

    MID: Swan Ablett Pendles Dangerfield Moloney Wines Whitfield O’Meara (Kommer, KMitchell)

    RUCK: Cox Berger (Blicavs, 89k donut)

    FWD: Rocky Chapman StevieJ Zorko JJK Dwyer (Neade, Rowe)

    Hanley is out for 1 week, thinking of either bringing in birch or just playing a port rook and hoping for the best this week.
    My mid bench is hurting my upgrade options later, with both kommer and mitchell chilling there. Kommer/KMitchell > mayes/evans is a vanilla option I’m tossing up for long term gain.
    Zorko, been destroying my funds since the first price change and would love to get him out. He will bottom out soon though (I hope) so not sure whether he is an urgent trade.

    Any comments much appreciated!

    • Joe

      April 23, 2013 at 4:58 pm

      Lol, straight over the head.

      1,461,300 – the amount of profit I have made after Round 4.
      14 – The round last year that I reached the same amount of profit.

      This is the reason I don’t take the DT site for granted, last year was my first time playing DT and I didn’t know about dreamteamtalk.com until about Round 10. Thanks guys!

    • Shags

      April 23, 2013 at 5:06 pm

      Zorko is due for one more bottom out, BE 113. If you were gunna trade him would have been the last couple of weeks. I would get both kommer and kitchell out if I was you. Or maybe trade your 89k donut, stick rowe in ruck rookie possy and grab mayes. Rowe is much more decent ruck backup then blicavs imo.

  10. Josh

    April 23, 2013 at 4:52 pm

    Suban + Viney OUT

    either

    Mayes + Hartlett + 67K
    or
    Evans + Birchall + 30K

    • Stange

      April 23, 2013 at 4:53 pm

      flip a coin, or make a decision

  11. Jared

    April 23, 2013 at 5:01 pm

    JJK (low BE, cheap)
    Cloke (decent BE, expensive) – premium?
    Stokes/Garlett (great BE, mid-range)

    Who???

    • Jared

      April 23, 2013 at 5:09 pm

      JJK and Garlett have good runs too

  12. Almen

    April 23, 2013 at 5:23 pm

    I have already traded
    Viney / Evans

    Option #1
    Bartel / Cloke (make 40-50k)

    Option #2
    Stevenson / Birchall (make nothing / higher score)

    Option #3
    Neade / Mayes (make 40-50k)

    Pick one thanks :)

    REPLY

    • Stevo

      April 23, 2013 at 5:56 pm

      option 3 is the best then 2. May as well leave bartel for now.

  13. BDeville

    April 23, 2013 at 5:24 pm

    Goddard, Gibbs, Heppell, Goodes, Stevenson, Pittard (Terlich, Heath)

    Swan, Ablett, Watson, Pendlebury, Cotchin, Wines, O’Meara, Viney (Crouch, Mitchell)

    Cox, Burger (Blicavs, Daw)

    Bartel, Rockliff, Westhoff, Robinson, Kennedy, Neade (Macaffer, Dwyer)

    16k remaining

    Thoughts/Advice on trades to make??? Thanks in advance
    I was looking at possibly getting Mitchell, Viney or Robinson OUT Possibly Evans, Mayes etc IN

    • Magpie28

      April 23, 2013 at 7:15 pm

      Awesome story bro, please keep repeating it

  14. Watto's Guns

    April 23, 2013 at 5:39 pm

    Does anyone know when Anzac day teams will be named?

    • Leigh

      April 23, 2013 at 6:06 pm

      Wed night I reckon.

  15. Leigh

    April 23, 2013 at 6:07 pm

    Might be a very naive question but could anyone please explain the Captain trick for the Anzac Day clash and the partial lockout?
    Thanks.

    • Ben

      April 23, 2013 at 7:13 pm

      Select Swan as Vice Captain. If Swan smashes it, bring an unselected player onto the field and select him as Captain (I knew Vlastuin was going to be useful for something). Make sure you select your emergency on this line to cover the zero. If Swan fails (as if), select one of your other guns to be Captain before lockout.

      • Stevo

        April 23, 2013 at 9:37 pm

        actually vlastuin is in the mix to play this round. Could very well get named and keeping him this long was a bad move.

  16. Ben

    April 23, 2013 at 7:09 pm

    4 – the number of trades I need this week

  17. DTKING

    April 23, 2013 at 8:08 pm

    Guys i really need your help cant decide between murphy or j selwood to get into my side for JPK? Needs reasons to pick one or the other.

  18. Albert Lloyd

    April 23, 2013 at 8:30 pm

    Jelwood DTKing.

    One reason – gut.

    • DTKING

      April 23, 2013 at 9:45 pm

      Cheers mate

  19. Jack

    Jack

    April 23, 2013 at 8:38 pm

    At this stage I have heppel Goddard Gibbs pittard Stevenson goodes on my field and just wanted to no if I should take Stevenson off and put Heath on opinions please

    • Tibbedy

      April 23, 2013 at 9:23 pm

      I have picked Heath, more consistent and has a better high score than Stevenson

      • Jack

        Jack

        April 23, 2013 at 9:40 pm

        Ok thanks mate

  20. Tibbedy

    April 23, 2013 at 9:26 pm

    16 – The sportsbet odds when I put 5 bucks on Ollie Wines to win the rising star award at the start of the seaon!

    • Tibbedy

      April 23, 2013 at 9:31 pm

      80 – The return I will get from my investment, Ollie Ollie Ollie!

      • Stevo

        April 23, 2013 at 9:36 pm

        In my eyes you already won. Honestly don’t see anyone else winning it. Been uber consistent and great every game.

        • What the bejeebers

          April 24, 2013 at 12:21 am

          Nek Minnit, Wines ruptures ACL

      • Magpie28

        April 24, 2013 at 8:08 am

        Don’t spend it all at once ;)

  21. Asho77

    April 24, 2013 at 1:37 am

    Love your work mate!
    What do you think about trading Dusty Martin to Stevie J?

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