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Lefty’s In-Vestments – Rd 4

Welcome to Lefty’s In-Vestments, where I will have a crack at picking the dreaded green vests for each weeks games. Nothing is more annoying than seeing your player with that horrible green vest on and it can cause fits of rage and expletive filled rants in the middle of family lunches (ask my fiancé about Karnezis the other week..).

LeftysInvestments

Welcome to Lefty’s In-Vestments, where I will have a crack at picking the dreaded green vests for each weeks games. Nothing is more annoying than seeing your player with that horrible green vest on and it can cause fits of rage and expletive filled rants in the middle of family lunches (ask my fiancé about Karnezis the other week..)

So to try and avoid any more embarrassing outbursts, every Thursday night from now on I will assess the team line ups, look at the last 3 green vests for each team, and try and work out the most likely starting sub candidates. I will also try and outline the Sunday teams likely green vests from the squads of 25 (good bloody luck I hear you say and I agree!)

So here we go – Round 4

 

Adelaide Crows

In – Lynch, McKernan, Kerridge, Laird, Lyons

Out- Van Berlo, Vince

Last 3 Subs –          Martin, Porplyzia, Vince

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Johncock. Look to inject late in 3rd quarter across half forward and give a burst of contested footy and goal scoring.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Lyons. Youngster trying to break in may be eased in via green.

 

Brisbane Lions

In – Harwood, Crisp, Karnezis, Paparone, Docherty

Out- Polec, Yeo

Last 3 Subs –          Beams, Karnezis, Polkinghorne

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Karnezis. The Karny clown may well continue the heartbreak and cop the kermit suit.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Harwood. Gives options for Vossy by being swung anywhere on the ground.

 

Carlton Blues

In – Warnock, Curnow, White

Out- Kreuzer, Davies, Buckley

Last 3 Subs –          Joseph, McLean, Buckley

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Lucas. Hasn’t shown enough since his good NAB cup form, may be used as sub to spark him into action.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – White. Can play back and mid, may free up scotland to play on ball by taking his place in the backline late in game?

 

Collingwood Magpies

In – Seedsman, J Thomas

Out- Frost, Johnson

Last 3 Subs –          Dwyer, Seedsman, Fasolo

Lefty’s #1 Sub – J Thomas. Smaller running forwards are the green rage at the Pies.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Seedsman. Looks the most likely other than J Thomas but I pretty sure it will be JT.

 

Essendon Bombers

In – Hille, Winderlich, Pears, Baguley, Merrett

Out- Ryder, Colyer, Kommer, Fletcher, Kavanagh

Last 3 Subs –          Zaharakis, Kommer, Colyer

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Merrett. Surely will be the green in this line up?

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Winderlich. May be eased back after injuries?

 

Fremantle Dockers

In – Neale

Out- Pavlich

Last 3 Subs –          Sutcliffe, Sutcliffe, Sutcliffe

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Neale. Late run could be a massive boon for the dockers

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Sutcliffe. Ross Lyons pet sub of 2013 may be the new Andrew Gaff!

 

Geelong Cats

In – Rivers, Horlin-Smith

Out- Varcoe, Murdoch

Last 3 Subs –          Horlin-Smith, Stokes, Caddy

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Horlin-Smith. Looks pretty much a certainty.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Smedts. Hasnt set the world on fire but can score goals in bursts

 

Gold Coast Suns

In – Murphy, Prestia

Out- Allen, Russell

Last 3 Subs –         Matera, Brennan, Russell

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Prestia. Fits the bill of running goal scorer and returning to side.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Shaw. Named last on bench and I couldnt find another better choice.

 

GWS Giants

In – O’hAilpan, Miles, Palmer, Golds, Tomlinson, Townsend, Frost, Haynes

Out- Brogan, Hampton, Smith, Patton, Hoskin-Elliot

Last 3 Subs –         Adams, Hoskin-Elliot, Reid

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Miles. Supposedly not the favourite son but if he can get his attitude right is no doubt of his potential.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Whitfield. Coin toss amongst 5 so this is an out an out guess(maybe Golds if he gets a game)

 

Hawthorn Hawks

In – Osborne

Out- Anderson

Last 3 Subs –         Anderson, Savage, Gunston

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Osborne. Goal kicking runners have been the trend here and given his leg issues seems logical to ease him in.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Puopolo. Same type as Osborne, and could be very damaging as a fresh runner versus a 2/3 game weary opposition.

 

Melbourne Demons

In – Spencer, Watts, Gawn

Out-

Last 3 Subs –         Blease, Rodan, Toumpas

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Bail. Should be the sub, reasonable runner and offers a bit of flexibility.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Watts. Maybe playing him fresh against tired players will give him a boost of confidence?

 

North Melbourne Roos

In – Anthony, Greenwood, Sierakowski, Daw, McKenzie

Out- Tarrant, Harper

Last 3 Subs –          Anthony, Jacobs, Wright

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Gibson. Last years star has struggled this season – may be reminded he needs to put in every week?

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Anthony. Has already adorned the green this season, Scott may go with him again.

 

Port Adelaide Power

In – Gray, Cassisi

Out- Mitchell, Stewart

Last 3 Subs –         Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Neade. Port will be wary of overtaxing the lightly framed young forward.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Gray. Returning from injury may be eased in AFL duties

 

Richmond Tigers

In – Nil

Out- Nil

Last 3 Subs –         Nahas, Ellis, Ellis

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Knights. Pefect vest candidate for mine, runs and hits the scoreboard and as a veteran should be managed through year?

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Ellis. Going for the unwanted threepeat of green – surely he gets to start this week ahead of Knights?

 

Saint Kilda Saints

In – Simpkin, Siposs

Out- Newnes, Blake

Last 3 Subs –         Dennis-Lane, Schneider, Ray

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Siposs. Look for him to play last quarter on the ball

Lefty’s #2 Sub –Saad. Run, carry and ability to hit the scoreboard may be enhanced against tired opponents?

Note : If T. Lee was quicker I would select him but I think he is too slow to be an effective green but very likely red vest.

 

Sydney Swans

In – Morton, Rampe

Out- Bird, Everitt

Last 3 Subs –          Armstrong, Bird, Bird

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Morton. The ideal running goal threat for late in a tight game

Lefty’s #2 Sub –Armstrong. Was the sub first round, and can be swung forward and back

 

West Coast Eagles

In – McKenzie, Dalziell

Out- Embley, Brown

Last 3 Subs –          Embley, Dalziell, Cripps

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Dalziell. Running power late will be very handy

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Hams. The pint sized speedster plays in bursts and holding him back may be a masterstroke late in the game?

 

Western Bulldogs

In – Boyd, Markovic, Cordy, Tutt, Howard, Stringer, Johannisen, Macrae

Out- Murphy, Higgins, Wood, Campbell, Dickson

Last 3 Subs –        Smith, Stevens, Smith

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Stringer. May be eased into season via green vests to manage body.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Tutt. Burst type player may be held back til 3rd quarter

 

So there you have it – my views on the likely vests this round. Hope this helps you in deciding who to start on the field (or even trade in/out) but please remember this is a ‘best guess’ article and I am just presenting my views and trying to apply some logic to the likely scenarios. In other words send praise when I get it right but no sooking if I guess wrong haha!

As always I will post the follow up on Monday to see how many I got right and see if any patterns for teams are emerging. ie certain types of players always vested, rookies on debut, returning injured stars etc.

My number one vest pick for the weekend – Morton (Sydney)

Good luck – and feel free to tweet me when I get it right/wrong over the weekend!

@Lefty113

59 Comments

59 Comments

  1. Paulus

    April 18, 2013 at 9:51 pm

    Thanks Lefty. This is exactly the kind of write up I’ve been looking for. Good stuff.

  2. Jack

    Jack

    April 18, 2013 at 9:56 pm

    Is trading danger to hodge a good idea

    • Warnie

      Warnie

      April 18, 2013 at 10:01 pm

      No, Hodge won’t get the vest.

      • Aidan

        April 19, 2013 at 9:11 am

        I highly doubt Danger or Hodge will be the sub

  3. A

    April 18, 2013 at 10:00 pm

    Think Neade is a good chance for vest.

  4. POK

    POK

    April 18, 2013 at 10:07 pm

    Think this is a great article but by no means is Josh Thomas a small running forward

    • Lefty

      April 18, 2013 at 10:40 pm

      ah bugger I must of been thinking of the wrong guy. Was trying to get the article up asap and didn’t double check this guy. Good pick up POK

    • Lefty

      April 18, 2013 at 10:42 pm

      ps who do you think will be the sub in this game then?

      • Shags

        April 18, 2013 at 11:20 pm

        Dare I say that Dwyer is a chance.

        • Lefty

          April 18, 2013 at 11:23 pm

          shh dont jinx him Shags….

          • Shags

            April 18, 2013 at 11:29 pm

            They are the ones talking about small running forwards being prime candidates.

          • boomstik

            April 19, 2013 at 2:35 am

            haha, i just benched neade for dwyer, and now i see this! aaagh! what to do! :P

      • POK

        POK

        April 19, 2013 at 7:47 am

        Hopefully Sinclair, shouldn’t be getting a game anyway :(

  5. BDeville

    April 18, 2013 at 10:13 pm

    Goddard, Gibbs, Heppell, Goodes, Stevenson, Pittard (Terlich, Heath)

    Swan, Ablett, Watson, Pendlebury, Cotchin, Wines, O’Meara, Viney (Kommer, Mitchell)

    Cox, Burger (Blicavs, Daw )

    Bartel, Rockliff, Zorko, Robinson, Kennedy, Neade (Macaffer, Dwyer)

    8k

    Guys!!! I need help with deciding on trades for Round 4 I really want to get rid of Zorko/Mitchell/kommer but for who? Help will be greatly appreciated

    • Seamus

      April 19, 2013 at 2:31 am

      zorko for the hoff and kommer for crouch

      • boomstik

        April 19, 2013 at 2:41 am

        mitchell back on rookie list though. kommer may be back sooner. but still don’t really know which is the best option. flip a coin?

        • Aidan

          April 19, 2013 at 9:12 am

          I think Dywer and Neade are the most likely green vest candidates in your team.

  6. Steven

    April 18, 2013 at 10:15 pm

    i had to hold on karnezis, so should i trade him out this week and utilise his value to get westhoff, especially seeing as he is a definite sub risk?

    • boomstik

      April 19, 2013 at 2:42 am

      without knowing anything else about your team i’m not too sure. but almost certainly YES!

  7. Ash

    April 18, 2013 at 10:24 pm

    What is everyones opinion of Neade being the sub over Gray, percentage-wise??

    • Shags

      April 18, 2013 at 11:31 pm

      id say at the very least hes a 1 in 22 chance.

      • boomstik

        April 19, 2013 at 2:46 am

        i like those odds.

        ash – i really don’t know. my F6 this week is between Neade and Dwyer. Not sure if you’re in the same boat but lefty’s got me thinking maybe Dwyer? since Thomas is likely Pies sub.

        • boomstik

          April 19, 2013 at 2:48 am

          sorry % wise – ummmmmm 50/50! i don’t know what to believe any more

          • Steven

            April 19, 2013 at 11:19 am

            0%. neade has been groomed in a fwd pocket position. he hasn’t played midfield once this season. the sub is usually strategic, neade being only a fwd pocket limits that strategy. port haven’t lost a game and will not change a winning formula. robbie gray is suited to the vest. livewire player, could provide a spark when subbed on….and won’t be thrown in the deep end his first game back after 12 months….

  8. Jabboiz

    April 18, 2013 at 10:46 pm

    Fantastic Article, great development of the sub prediction articles from last season. Good to have my wariness around Neade reinforced.

  9. Kamil

    April 18, 2013 at 10:53 pm

    Should I field Viney or Whitfield?

    • Shags

      April 18, 2013 at 11:32 pm

      One of those 2 is listed as a sub chance.

  10. HAWKAS

    April 18, 2013 at 10:57 pm

    K.Mitchell > Hodge leaving $4,600 left or K.Mitchell > Wines leaving $155,200 left?

    • Jack

      Jack

      April 18, 2013 at 11:17 pm

      K.mitchell > wines coz wines will go up in price and if he keeps scoring consistently he might even be a keeper

      • smith

        April 19, 2013 at 11:37 am

        Hodge will also go up in price and hodge also has far more chance of turning into a keeper… Yes, he won’t go up nearly as much. But he will go up and definitely has ‘keeper’ potential

  11. Jack

    Jack

    April 18, 2013 at 11:18 pm

    Wat do u guys think how will danger go this week or is hodge a better option

    • boomstik

      April 19, 2013 at 2:51 am

      danger is such a poser, kick him to the kerb!

      correct me if i’m wrong but on BE alone Hodge is way in front right?

      if ao, HODGE!

  12. Shags

    April 18, 2013 at 11:25 pm

    I reckon the DT talk boys should get their IT guys and girls to have a permanent “Discuss your team trade option” link right at the start of the DT talk page. It would be nice to have a discussion about possible subs that you can go back and read without all the trade comments. I undestand why they are here, (its the most recent post and where people will be looking). Just a thought.

    • boomstik

      April 19, 2013 at 2:56 am

      good idea shags. i like having a forum to discuss all the in’s and out’s. trade advice is fine but the comments are becoming overrun with the same trade questions lately. not that it bothers me too much, i love to see how passionate everyone is about their team! but something like shags idea could be great!

    • Magpie28

      April 19, 2013 at 10:27 am

      Plus a million! It’s getting pretty tedious

  13. Shags

    April 18, 2013 at 11:34 pm

    Good effort Lefty. This has got to be the toughest DT article to write. I mean Calvin captains, how difficult is it to write Swan? e

  14. Jack

    Jack

    April 18, 2013 at 11:38 pm

    Pittard or Hutchins

    • Aidan

      April 19, 2013 at 9:13 am

      I think Pittard is more likely to be the sub

  15. Matt

    April 18, 2013 at 11:50 pm

    Who to field? (pick 3)
    Wines, o’meara, crouch, boney, Koby Stevens.

    • boomstik

      April 19, 2013 at 2:58 am

      wines, o’meara, boney

  16. DELICIOUS!

    April 19, 2013 at 1:30 am

    Thinking Kerridge may get the vest for crows. has a vested history

    • Lefty

      April 19, 2013 at 10:41 am

      good call – I swayed towards Johncock as after last weeks average effort I think they will want to start with the youngsters and send a message to the senior players (dropped vince, vest another senior?)
      If Kerridge makes the final team then definitely a green chance (I think he won’t make the 22?)
      Also in your favour every premiership game Kerridge has played for Adelaide he has been the sub – (1!)haha

  17. FMDT

    April 19, 2013 at 6:19 am

    Quick one here:
    Who to get in mullet (cash) or hodge (points)

    • dirk diggler

      April 19, 2013 at 12:29 pm

      Mullett (points)
      Just a thought..he’s hardly spudding it :)

  18. Sammy B

    April 19, 2013 at 6:46 am

    Not that anyone should care…but Tutt (WBD) and Gray (PTA) surely can’t be the #2 subs for their teams. Tutt’s listed as playing forward pocket, and Gray is supposed to start at back pocket?

    • Aidan

      April 19, 2013 at 9:15 am

      It doesn’t matter where they’re listed on the team sheet, they can still be sub. Also I doubt Gray will play back pocket, he is a small forward who has occasional bursts in the middle like LeCras or Rioli

  19. Lebanesebetweentheknees

    April 19, 2013 at 8:44 am

    Sydney Sub: D.Rampe
    Geelong Sub: G-H-S
    Hawthorn Sub: M.Osborne
    Fremantle Sub: L.Neale
    Richmond Sub: B.Ellis
    Collingwood Sub: P.Seedsman
    St.Kilda Sub: F.Ray
    Essendon Sub: J.Merrett
    West Coast Sub: B.Dazziell
    Carlton Sub: K.Lucas
    Gold Coast Sub: M.Shaw
    Port Adelaide Sub: D.Cassisi
    Thank me later.

    • Steven

      April 19, 2013 at 11:20 am

      brisbane?

      • EagleHawk

        April 19, 2013 at 12:11 pm

        port??

  20. Jack

    Jack

    April 19, 2013 at 10:05 am

    I think hodge is a better trade to get instead of keeping danger thoughts

  21. Jack

    Jack

    April 19, 2013 at 10:08 am

    Is downgrading pittard to Hutchins a good call or bad call thoughts plz

    • Jack

      Jack

      April 19, 2013 at 10:16 am

      Or is it better to downgrade danger to hodge

      • EagleHawk

        April 19, 2013 at 12:10 pm

        id go danger to hodge

  22. Leigh

    April 19, 2013 at 11:02 am

    Ok 3 options

    1. Play Dwyer in Forwards, Leave Cox and Jacobs in Ruck
    2a. Swap Rowe to Cox, Play Cox in forwards resting Dwyer and play Rowe & Jacobs
    2b) Same as above but play Daw & Jacobs
    3. Play Rowe in Forwards resting Dwyer

    Outside option is I have Neade as well which I can play but has been sugested as a green vest.

  23. Jackadaktal

    April 19, 2013 at 1:20 pm

    should i field neade or karnezis?

    • boomstik

      April 19, 2013 at 1:48 pm

      neade

  24. Gingy

    April 19, 2013 at 1:50 pm

    Simon White is a back and forward, NOT a back and mid.

  25. Joshua Sio

    April 19, 2013 at 6:24 pm

    Is there a chance omeara will vest up this week? Its really between him and shaw?

  26. Lefty

    April 19, 2013 at 6:40 pm

    Bugger i really didnt think caddy would get 2 vests in a row. Happy with my morton prediction though

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