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Deck of Dream Team

Heath Scotland – Deck of Dream Team 2013

Jeppa puts the microscope over the reigning Carlton Best & Fairest, Heath Scotland. Will this proven defender Premo come into your 2013 calculations?

  • Jeppa

Name: Heath Scotlandjan07_scotland
: Carlton
Position: Def/Mid
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $493,400
Bye Round: 13
2012 Average: 95.8
2012 Games Played: 21
Predicted Average: 90


Why should I pick him?

The designated sweeper at Carlton is no stranger to having the pill in his hands. Last season, Scotland averaged 26.3 disposals and was 10th in the league for uncontested possessions. With Judd and Murphy commanding most of the attention from the opposition, Scotland usually does as he pleases. In all honesty, how many times do you see Scotland with and opponent? Very rarely!

As a defender, Scotland was second to Deledio for total DT points in 2012. He also had the third highest average for a defender last season. This proven defender premo also holds his DPP status giving coaches some flexibility if needed.

As a DT coach, one of the most important aspects in picking any player is consistency. Defenders like Grimes, Suckling and Hanley can cause a coach unnecessary stress with their topsy-turvy scoring patterns. No such problems exist with Scotland. From 21 games last season, he scored less than 80 on only 3 occasions and on 4 occasions from 24 games in 2011. In Scotland, we trust!

Hold no fear, a change in coach won’t do Scotland’s scoring ability any harm. Malthouse’s coaching style will still see Scotland play a similar running half back role like he has done in the past few seasons. When you look at guys like Leon Davis and Harry O, Mick allowed them to play to their strengths. The same will apply at Carlton, with Scotland to run off his opponent and continually hit up targets through the midfield and in the forward 50. Additionally, I’ll be very interested to see how Malthouse uses Chris Yarran in the pre season.

Personally, I think Scotland is a competitor who hates to lose and a player that does what he has to do to help the team win. With Carlton desperate to go deep into September, look for Scotland to hit top form in the second half of the season.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Like many AFL players in recent times, Scotland has been on the wrong side of the law. In January last year, he found himself in the middle of a pub brawl to which he has pleaded guilty for an associated assault. Scotland has yet received a penalty from Carlton for this misdemeanor but it is probable that his punishment will involve a 2 or 3 game suspension at the start of the home and away season (source).

Scotland turns 33 this year and will probably retire at season’s end. Picking older players comes with the common risks…higher probability for soft tissue injuries, scheduled rest periods etc. Even though Scotland has been pretty durable over his career, his age must be perceived as a risk.

Deck of DT Rating.

Queen – Scotland is a reliable type who will continue to average around the 90 mark in 2013. His likely suspension to start the season means he is out of my initial side, however I’ve penciled him in for a post bye trade up because defenders that constantly accumulate possessions are few and far between!

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  1. Pettiger

    January 7, 2013 at 8:31 am

    Nice work Jeppa. Probably an upgrade target later in the season.

    • Dream on!

      January 7, 2013 at 10:39 am

      Yep that’s the way to go. Used this analogy before, but he’s a bit like the Bartel of the backline. Average dropping, but should still be enough as an upgrade possibility.

  2. lethal

    January 7, 2013 at 8:43 am

    Excellent write up Jep – not in my side atm – but definately food for thought! Totally agree though Scotty could well be a suitable upgrade. cheers :)

  3. Big Feller

    January 7, 2013 at 8:54 am

    Top work Jeppa.
    Personally I think he’ll get 4 to 6 if Carlton are fair dinkum but given they’re all about the premiership window he’ll probably just have to buy the boys a round and that will be it!
    I’m a tad worried about the Malthouse factor and their past history together but they’re both big enough, and ugly enough, to not let that have an impact on the field.
    Given I’m going a 4 premo back line I’ll monitor Heath throughout most of the year as defenders will probably be the last line I upgrade.

  4. RLGriffin

    January 7, 2013 at 9:35 am

    Nice write up, but it’s a no for me. At 33 I can’t see him getting pushed into the midfield anywhere near as much this season, and personally I see Malthouse containing Scotland to a specific role of cleaning up the half back like, but not continuing his run forward, except on occasion when it’s a full zone press (ie, Harry O).

    I also hate starting the year with over $450,000 on the bench in total, let alone in one spot, so a possible club sanction doesn’t make me want him. There’s always a possibility his suspension could be served in the NAB, which may make me reassess him, but sharing the byes with Collingwood, Essendon & Gold Coast means he’ll be out the same week as other potential picks in Gibbs, Shaw, Goddard, Bock & Broughton. Not for me.

  5. g73scratch

    January 7, 2013 at 10:25 am

    he may not get a club suspension..if not ill consider,,i started with him last yr and he was good all yr..only worry was his age ,and thats about all im worried about this yr…malthouse factor shouldnt be an issue unless they r going bad or out of finals contention,and heez looking for excuses,,then hell drop scotland like a bad habit

  6. tnargus

    January 7, 2013 at 10:41 am

    Great write up yet again Jep. Scotland was awesome last year in his consistency for me. Had him the entire season I believe. That said, his possible suspension plus bye rounds with God, Gibbs and Broughts (also in my backline) make me rethink him. Probably not this year, and at least not until the 2nd half of season me thinks.

  7. Bandicoot

    January 7, 2013 at 10:50 am

    As I understand it, it is the best 18 from your squad of 30 who will score you your points in the bye rounds. Meaning even if you had someone sitting on the bench who scored 100+, he will count in your score. That being said, Scotland sharing his bye round with Goddard, Broughton and Gibbs is not overly relevant as long as you have plenty of mid and forward premiums left to play on that day.

    • RLGriffin

      January 7, 2013 at 1:05 pm

      That is true, but if you can keep your best scorers on the park, and have your lower scores missing out, than you’ll do much better during bye rounds. Better to have at least 2 of your best 4 in each line playing during the byes, than having your best scorers missing out, and your average ones tallying up the points. A backline of Goddard, Scotland, Gibbs, Broughton & Heppell would leave your scoring to whoever is left in your best 18 – rookies or uniques. Not ideal.

      Remember, best 18 (from 22) only means you get one reprieve per line per bye.

      • Bandicoot

        January 7, 2013 at 1:22 pm

        I have obviously misunderstood the bye situation.
        I had thought that the best 18 comes from your squad of 30 not the 22 selected on the field.
        So, if I had a heap of defenders missing (let’s say I only have 4 playing – two short) that could be made up by having 9 midfielders and 7 forwards actually playing (plus 2 rucks). That would be 22 players actually participating from which my best 18 would be selected albeit 2 would be on my bench.
        Is that so?

        • Semisonic

          January 7, 2013 at 2:41 pm

          I spose either way you look at it, with these defenders missing and mids like Swan, Beams, Pendles, GAJ, Watson, Stanton, Murphy etc etc etc the question becomes will you have 18 available players for that round anyway?

  8. Bandicoot

    January 7, 2013 at 10:52 am

    BTY An interesting writeup Jep.
    His age is a concern to me as with his possible change in role (as pointed out by Grif). He is not really on my radar at this stage.

  9. Chris

    January 7, 2013 at 11:20 am

    Bit risky if he gets the call up to join the fireys

  10. Rayza

    January 7, 2013 at 2:01 pm

    Like many others I had him all year and he was a ripper, but he did do a calf at the mid point of the season. Now I know he only missed 1 game… I think a bye may have been in their too….. but he does have a history of doing calfs. He got away with it last year…. But will he in 2013. Calfs ala ‘Wayne Carey’ are classic examples of aged players dogged with this type injury toward the latter part of their career. Its a no from me.

  11. Dynamo

    January 9, 2013 at 12:33 pm

    No for me.

    Age, Police charges, Malthouse history. May look to upgrade mid season if all is good but definatly not in my starting side.

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