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Deck of Dream Team

Matthew Leuenberger – Deck of Dream Team 2013

Merry Christmas to all AFL Dream Team fans! Here is a bargain of a pick for you and by the looks of it, close to the most selected player in 2013. See what JimBob has to say about the big Lions ruckman before you tuck into a heap of beer and food!

dec25_leuenbergerName: Matthew Leuenberger
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position: Ruckman
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $233,600
Bye Round: 11 (shared with Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Richmond and Bulldogs)
2012 Average: 56.7
2012 Games Played: 3
Predicted Average:  95 – 100

Why should I pick him?

The short answer is why not?

This one is actually really hard because I don’t need to convince anyone that he needs picking! Scanning through a page of the latest ‘My team’ page only 1 coach didn’t have Leuey in their team (and guess what the first comment suggested? Haha!)

The best thing about Leuenberger (and why everyone has him in their teams) is that he is a known commodity while being cheap as chips. He is priced like a Great Wall car, but will give you  Toyota like output and reliability. Before Leuey went down in early 2012 (more about that in the next  section) he came home like a steam train in 2011. After round 13 in 2011 , Leuey scored under 90 just once and averaged 100 ppg in that time, showing a very respectable ceiling of 140.

Fast forward to 2013 and Leuey is a walk up start to the Lion’s best 21 and will likely play a high % of the game in the ruck, with new buddy Stef Martin giving him some relief but not taking too many points off the big man (highly speculative). I don’t think you will find too many other potential ‘keepers’ in the same price bracket – and in any other line.

From a fixture perspective, Leuenberger has a round 11 bye and only shares this with other popular ruckmen in Sandilands and Maric – although this is less relevant now. At least he doesn’t have a round 13 bye!

The other great thing about picking Leuenberger is that if he does succumb to another injury early in the season, it won’t  really matter that much, as every man and his dog will be in the same boat.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

It was the beginning of 2012 and ‘The Berger’ was about to challenge for the mantle of best ruckman in the competition after finishing 2011 with a bang.  Unfortunately, the only thing that went ‘bang’ was his Achilles tendon in round 3, which earned him a spot on Brisbane’s LTI list and sparked a horror injury run to the ruckmen in the AFL for season 2012. Will Leuey come back as the man we saw in 2011? Will he take half a season to get going again? Fortunately, all the information I have read so far says that he will be ready to rock and roll in round 1 and history has shown us several successful returns from Achilles injuries the following year – see Jarryd Roughead last season.

Honestly, at his price there are very few reasons to not pick him – maybe because his name is hard to spell?

Deck of DT Rating.

KING. I can see Leuey getting back to his 2011 form and becoming a keeper in 2013. He is going to be one of the most popular picks in 2013  (if not the most popular) and comes with minimal risk, with too much upside for his price. A worst-case scenario is he averages 80 for the season and is a stepping stone to a Top 2 ruckman after the byes.

Lock him in your team now. Oh that’s right, you already have!

While I’m at it hope everyone in the DT Talk community has a Merry Christmas with family and friends!  May the presents be useful (like a pre ordered Prospectus) and the beers flow!

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @jimbobholder for DT and cricket musings! Got something to say about the deck? Use the hashtag… #DeckofDT.

29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. feathertopDT

    feathertopDT

    December 25, 2012 at 8:06 am

    A lock for me far too cheap to avoid

    • g73scratch

      December 26, 2012 at 1:57 pm

      GAMES PLAYED 2012…3!!… nuff said..no chance in the world ..the only thing i think of when it comes to him is has he ever played a full season,and my son takes him all the time..and that it

      • Shorty

        December 26, 2012 at 2:23 pm

        How is a guy who before this year played 46 straight games, was forced to only play 3 games this year due to an Achilles injury, priced at 233k, who averaged 93 last year not going to make your team? Say goodbye to any chance of winning the car!

        • Shorty

          December 26, 2012 at 2:25 pm

          44*

      • Dream on!

        December 26, 2012 at 2:23 pm

        Yes, he has played a full season. 2010 and 2011 consecutively to be precise.

        • g73scratch

          December 29, 2012 at 9:32 am

          to be precise he ave 57.6..and played 3 games last yr…..look at his games played since being drafted ,,unless im thinking of someone else

      • lindros

        February 10, 2013 at 9:54 am

        if u dont pick leuey and pick just say….h,mac u will be throwing away 200k

  2. dyslexia

    December 25, 2012 at 8:32 am

    Yep

  3. Bandicoot

    December 25, 2012 at 8:49 am

    First of all, the Coots would like to wish everyone @ DT Talk a wonderfully Merry Christmas and a profitable (win the car) 2013.

    In regards to Leuy – he was the first of my picked 30 players. A player of his potential as shown in 2011 is an absolute steal at $233,600. The only thing stopping him being the number 2 (number 1 in some) ruckman in 99% of teams will be another long term injury during pre season.
    Anyone who currently doesn’t have him, does not know a lot about DT inho.

  4. Dream on!

    December 25, 2012 at 9:07 am

    Lol, I think that first comment might have come from me. Will be hands down THE most selected players amongst serious coaches thanks to the occasional over-thinkers who neglect Goddard, Gibbs or Rocky.

  5. lethal

    December 25, 2012 at 9:17 am

    Good Morning, a very Happy Christmas to you all! This is my first message in chat, i’m a relative novice to DT. Yes it seems to stick out like the proverbial dogs nuts to have Luey. He was my 1st selected a whisker in front of Gibbs who represents solid value with his DPP status, and seemingly different role to 2012 under Malthouse.

  6. Brappinalong

    December 25, 2012 at 9:44 am

    Morning DT’ers and a merry Xmas to you all :)

    Massive lock and throw away the key.

    • Pettiger

      December 25, 2012 at 10:37 am

      +1, facebook like, and Merry Christmas to all.

      • Joke_R

        December 25, 2012 at 3:00 pm

        I seem to recall a very good article written somewhere, by a top bloke, that predicted him for an average of 89, and told people to lock him. I think the author must be spot on. Do yourself a favour and don’t try any fancy structures, just lock him in as number two ruck, perhaps with a DPP link in case he takes a few extra weeks. Either way, he will be the most selected ruck this year.

        Lock.

  7. Rayza

    December 25, 2012 at 9:48 am

    Yep like the fact that even if he goes down with a repeat of the achillies we are all in the same boat. Expect alot of Luey to Rocky / Redden come 2013. Merry Christmas fellas!

  8. PurpleArmy (aka Space Goats)

    December 25, 2012 at 10:54 am

    Merry Christmas all. Hope you all have a great day! :)

    The Berger is pretty much a lock, even with a setback this preseason, can’t go past him and if you do don’t bother making a team.

  9. Big Feller

    December 25, 2012 at 11:19 am

    Merry Xmas guys.
    Yep – the Berger is locked. Just dark that my other lock ruck (Nic Nat) has issues otherwise I wouldn’t have to give rucks a second thought!

    • Big Feller

      December 26, 2012 at 9:48 am

      Caught up with old mate and he said he was going as expected but a big concern with groins is:
      A) some heal straight away while others can take months
      B) even if he does recover 100% he’ll be running around expecting it to go again and that can hamper his play before he gets confidence back in his body
      At this stage I won’t be starting him.

  10. lethal

    December 25, 2012 at 11:46 am

    May be a stupid question Big Feller, so apologies…. what are Nic Nat’s issues? As i had him pencilled in to tandem Luey. Cheers

    • Big Feller

      December 25, 2012 at 11:53 am

      He’s had groin surgery recently and may not be a certain starter for rd one!
      I have to admit I’ve been confused seeing him in so many teams so I’ll be watching him very closely.
      Luckily I’ve got a contact at WCE (who I’m seeing today) so I’ll try and get some inside info ;)

      • Dream on!

        December 25, 2012 at 12:58 pm

        Looks like you might have to turn to your old favourite Goldstein ;)

  11. nateo

    December 25, 2012 at 12:01 pm

    Lock Lock Lock he is a certain lock . . would another good dt page http://www.facebook.com/#!/aflfantasy

  12. Nick

    December 25, 2012 at 1:14 pm

    I can’t avoid him at that price. I really have no choice, especially since this year i want to cut as many corners as possible to start with the midfield i want.

  13. lethal

    December 25, 2012 at 2:34 pm

    Cheers Big Feller I’ll be watching intently for the inside word. Else I’m looking at Cox, perhaps even Smith (GC) who may be in for a big 3rd year. That would free up a bit of $ to use elsewhere.

  14. ManZzZoid

    December 26, 2012 at 12:12 am

    I’ve got a brilliant little job for one of you guys that have shitloads of time on your hands.

    One thing I’d like to know is… How many players drop below their starting price at some time in the year?.. Maybe start with the top 50 and do it from last years stats.

    I bet about 5% dont drop. It will show that at some time of the year we can pick up a bargain, not just at the start.

    • portetdaspet

      December 26, 2012 at 4:13 am

      For mine this is a completely pointless information. I don’t doubt that pretty much all top-end premiums (and most players) will drop below their starting price at some point in the year, but how does that help you?

      There are a few reasons for this; the two main factors are league wide depreciation courtesy of the MN change (~10% last year) and pure randomness (no-one scores exactly their average every game). However, if you pick up Swan (or any other player) for a discount later in the year (even a deflation adjusted discount) that doesn’t mean that it was a mistake to start with him. The small amount of cash saved is unlikely to offset the points you have lost (unless he has a real stinker).

      The other problem is that there’s rarely a way of knowing when a premium has hit bottom (with one exception). An example of this is Sam Mitchell from last year who seemed to be cheap for about 8 weeks, but took forever to increase in price. Of course if a player has an injury/concussion affected low score than you can get them cheap, but that can happen to anyone with pretty much equal probability, so there’s no real advantage to be gained from initial team selection.

      • ManZzZoid

        December 26, 2012 at 11:46 am

        Well I’m sorry to open my mouth!!! If you’ve got any bright ideas, add them and let me pick the eyes out of them!!! It was only a suggestion mate! Someone will do it.

        • This Is Smelly Pete

          January 2, 2013 at 1:39 pm

          No-one will do it.

          • Steven

            January 18, 2013 at 3:18 pm

            Do you think Goldstein & Leunberger as no.1,2 with Ryder in the fwd line is a good set-up? Funilly enough I had Goldstein & Luenberger as my starting two ruckmen last year……

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