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Mad Monday: Lock and Load

When your chips are down and you’re at the end of your rope, these are the guys who will pull you through. Dream Team’s finest; the best; the Guns! Just don’t go thinking you need to score 100+ to be a top ten player, you can make it with a 78 average. Welcome, to MadMonday!


Brush your hair, tie up your laces, and put on a new ironed shirt, because we are about to delve into premium territory; the best of the best, the cream of the crop, the crème de la crème. Today – we look at what it takes to be the best player in AFL Dream Team. Welcome to MadMonday!


Defining a Gun



Firstly, let’s be frank: just because a player averages 100+ does not make them a Gun! It makes them a Premium scorer, yes, but not a Gun. Premium’s score big! Guns score well and often. Understanding the difference (when looking at your starting line-up) between a premium scorer and a Gun player is paramount to a successful year.

For picking Guns to start in your line-up you really want them to be one of the top ten scorers across the year (in their position). But don’t get caught up on averages, the score you are after is based on their total score, the end of season, played every game score.

Ask yourself, will this player play every game (or very close to), scoring a decent average, and rarely let you down? If so, this makes them a Gun. Players who are high scorers in nearly every game they play, and generally sit on top of the average column, but often miss games through injury, suspension or resting’s should not be considered Guns.

Why? Guns are players who continuously score well, and often. They’re scoring output is not comparable across lines, so each line (forward/defence/midfield etc) has their own score bracket which classifies them as Guns. The emphasis on a starting Gun is that the player will be set in their position, scoring reliably, all year.

Every preseason you hear: ‘Pick him, he is a Gun!’ or ‘I’m going Guns and Rookies – no question’ and then they throw in Alan Didak, Heath Shaw or Lance Frankling. Without setting myself up for a public hanging; they are not Guns (this season). Understanding what a Gun is will make or break your team; and I’m here to break it down for you.


It’s easier than it looks; sort of.



The Guns and Rooks strategy is used to get the best score possible whilst making plenty of cash. Your starting Guns keep the score ticking over whilst your rookies make you cash, so that you can buy players who will make your score even better. Therefore, you select Guns you think will be listed amongst the top 10 players in their position (or top 5 for Ruck), by seasons end. Why? This means you won’t have to trade them, or even worry about them during the entire year, your score will still be strong, and you won’t have to rely on your D9 or F9 to avoid a donut.

But how do you figure out who will be a top ten player? Well, I have put together the following tables highlighting what is needed from a player, across a season, to be a Gun.


Average required to break into the top 10 of each line, or top 5 for rucks, in 2012.

Every Game

Misses 1

Misses 2

Misses 3






















This is also fairly consistent with last year’s averages, which are as follows.

 Average required to break into the top 10 of each line, or top 5 for rucks, in 2011.

Every Game

Misses 1

Misses 2

Misses 3






















Let’s be honest. Looking at the average needed, if a player plays every game, to finish as a top 10 player in his position; it’s amazingly low if they play every game. In fact, a player can average nearly fifteen points lower than the highest averaging player, and still make the top ten if they play every game.


Using it to our advantage



The fact that a defender only needs to score 80 or more if he plays every game or a midfielder needing 105 on the same basis can save us a fortune when picking our teams. Although your line-up may not have the star power of others, it’s the scoring power that matters.

Now obviously you’ll always want certain players. A couple of potential captains (Boyd, Ablett or Swan) and the unquestionable players for their position like Deledio or Cox. But who do you pick for the remaining spots?

If at the start of the 2013 season the magic number is around the 4,100 mark, then a five point difference in average when prices are released will be approximately $20,000. Ten points difference = $40,000 and 15 points = $60,000 and so on. If you can find the players who will average 15 points less than the best, but play every game across the season, you have the winning formula.

We Should Have Known

We Should Have Gone


Lance Franklin (18th Forward) Matthew Pavlich (3rd Forward) $37,000
Corey Enright (13th Defender) Andrew Mackie (12th Defender) $62,000
Dyson Heppell (14th Defender) Michael Johnson (4th Defender) $96,000
Aaron Sandilands (23rd Ruck) Sam Jacobs (4th Ruck) $34,000
Joel Selwood (16th Midfielder) Trent Cotchin (8th Midfielder) $88,000
Tom Rockliff (17th Midfielder) Andrew Swallow (11th Midfielder) $63,000

 For example, the difference between these two sets of players in 2012 is $380,000.

Despite the appeal of great premium scoring opportunities, we all should have known that Franklin would miss games either through suspension, resting or niggles, Enright would be rested at least twice or injured, Heppell wasn’t a proven scorer, Sandilands had toe/body issues, Selwood would get knocked out or knock someone else out and Rockliff was all over the shop.

The smart coach also knew that Mackie was consistent, Pavlich, Cotchin and Swallow played nearly every game with solid scoring, Jacobs would be reliable to play, and Johnson, well, under Ross Lyon anything could have happened, but at least he had his body and mind right. Despite this, many of us overlooked these Guns because they aren’t likely to pump out 140s on occasions. But they also aren’t likely to miss games.

The extra $380,000 saved could have been the difference between sneaking in an extra Gun in your starting line-up, or for those saying ‘you have to risk it for the biscuit’, upgrading a few rookies to midfield break-out player. Players such as Dangerfield ($350,000), Grimes ($330,000), Ebert ($308,000) or even Tuck ($350,000).

So next season, when we don’t have expansion teams to rely on for rookies left, right and centre, I’ll be looking down the list and working out – who will play every game whilst scoring consistently? Although there is always risk in this (Goodes and Pendlebury for example), it means we can avoid Fyfe, Franklin and Rockliff disasters, whilst cashing in on Guns like Dangerfield, Grimes and Cotchin. It will leave you with less worries, more trades (which would otherwise be used for LTIs) and then when a premium scorer does drop in value (Carrazzo, Mitchell, Stevie J and Fyfe) you’ll have the cash, and the room for upgrades.

Public Forum



What do you think? How do you balance star power with scoring power? Which big names have let you down this season and who are the big names you’ll be omitting from your starting line-up next season? Or is it just all too hard, like catching lighting in a bottle? Let me know via twitter or in the comments below!

Until next week,
Keep Dreaming!



  1. Rohan

    August 13, 2012 at 11:12 am

    Out and out the best article I have read all year. Printed stapled in the DT file for the start of 2013.

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 11:15 am

      Cheers bud. The hardest part about all this is following it next year. Personally, not starting with Franklin, Stevie J, Fyfe or even Carrazzo would be very hard to do next year.

      • Rohan

        August 13, 2012 at 1:05 pm

        I think they are guys you evaluate on pre seaon and either take them on with the risk understood, or don’t take them and look to upgrade to them after they have their almost inevitable sit out.

  2. northern nemesis

    August 13, 2012 at 11:18 am

    Spot on young fella ! Do you agree that possible DPP changes for some could also be an vital when it comes to selections ? i.e. Cox (Ruck/Fwd)

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 11:27 am

      How DPP fits in to all of this is of greater significance if a player gains status in a lower (required average) position than vice versa. Eg, a Fwd gaining Midfield status won’t help you select them in the midfield, they would remain in your forward line. However a player who averages 85 as a midfielder this season (playing every game) who gains dual positioning in defence next season propels them automatically into the top ten of that position if they were to repeat their efforts. That’s where the value is.

      Re: Cox
      Realistically, if Cox was to get DPP R/F, then you would be tempted to pick him in the forward line based on the averages (with Rucks needing only 79 and Forwards needing 88), meaning your newly vacated ruck spot only needs to average 79 to be a top five player in that position. Realistically though, you would have an easier time finding a high scoring player forward than back, so you would still play Cox as a Ruckman, and bring in a higher scoring player in your forward line.

  3. agups

    August 13, 2012 at 11:26 am

    Wow, excellent article! Gives a whole new perspective on DT strategy.
    What’s the ‘misses 1’ etc. in the table for?

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 11:31 am

      If a player ‘misses one game’ over the season, or misses ‘two games’ over the season, etc

      Eg. If A.Swallow plays only 21 of 22 available games, he would need an average of 108, not 103 to be in the top ten, etc. It is designed to help with comparing players. For instance, if Whitecross plays every game, he only needs an 88 average to break into the top ten, whereas Franklin who may miss three games, needs 105 average to break into it.

      • agups

        August 13, 2012 at 12:36 pm

        great research skills RL! top article!

  4. TigerTragic

    August 13, 2012 at 11:35 am

    Mate, you are rapidly becoming the most insightful dreamteam writer on this site, if not the whole internets. Great article.

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 11:53 am

      Haha. Cheers mate. Plenty above me in that pecking order, I’m just happy to get the opportunity to discuss Dream Team with those who love it like I do.

  5. Pettiger

    August 13, 2012 at 11:38 am

    Yes, a very smart article Griff. The best guns play the most games and ergo score the most points. After this week Swannie will be ranked about 10th in total points – hindsight now says there were better players to have in your team.

    • Totto's Immortals

      August 13, 2012 at 11:52 am

      I’ll still be getting him in come Grand Final day ;)
      OUT goes Jelwood (vs Swans)
      IN comes Swanny (vs Dons)

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 11:54 am

      I was very careful not to highlight Swan or Ablett as players who miss games, as their averages can be so high, that even missing games they still make up for it. And when you throw in Captaincy potential, those boys average closer to 220 per game.

  6. Big Feller

    August 13, 2012 at 11:56 am

    Brilliant as always Griff!

    I see you had a masterful win over the great TKOL on the weekend as well.

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 11:59 am

      Thanks Big Feller. Personally I had a horrible DT weekend. Daisy Thomas as my M6 backfired, again, and nothing seemed to go right… Needless to say my wife was very surprised when I was willingly seeking out housework on Sunday to avoid looking at my team.

      • jerrykewell

        August 13, 2012 at 12:46 pm

        Yeah, Dale Thomas going down certainly hurt your chances on the weekend, but not having Cox was the difference. I’m sure you’ll bounce back this week against Slight.

        On a brighter note, what a super read, opened my eyes as to how I have been mislead by picking the buzz names.

        • RLGriffin

          August 13, 2012 at 12:56 pm

          The worst part was he was off to a flyer. I blame Mumford personally. Yeah my ruck division is going to have consistent, non-injury prone players. The average column has far too much emphasis when picking teams.

          Thankfully VS don’t price players on a combination of average and total score, that would hurt!

          • Nimrod

            August 13, 2012 at 1:46 pm

            Ruck division with consistent, non-injury prone players is somewhat of an oxymoron this year!!

  7. Clueless

    August 13, 2012 at 12:04 pm

    Firstly, Well done Griff. Top work. It’s a wonder you guys don’t get paid.

    Anyway, Jobe Watson is I think, the epitome of a gun. Played every game so far. Averaging 115 and has a lowest score for the year of 86. He’ll be my fist picked next year.

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 12:17 pm

      Warnie and the boys swings us beer money when they can, but the reality is this is a community site, that isn’t for profit, so demanding cash would be silly. If we got a regular income, it would probably mean turning the site into a paywall scenario, which no body wants. Buying the cheat sheet and that sort of thing helps. Plus I got some nice DT Talk golf balls for Christmas. It’s the little things that count!

      Watson has been amazing this year, and we would be near on impossible to ignore next season if he gets through the season unscathed.

  8. The UnderAchievers

    August 13, 2012 at 12:32 pm

    Great article griff, brings a whole new perspective when choosing teams for next year! Will be following this plan for next year, but will still be using the guns (Swan, Ablett)

  9. Slappers


    August 13, 2012 at 12:32 pm

    mate, top article… you sir are a wise man…

    love the thought process behind this… i will definitely use this next year…

    can we get a PDF of this article so i can keep in on my desktop read to refresh me for the 2013 season?

    • The UnderAchievers

      August 13, 2012 at 12:37 pm

      Just visit this page next year under the Game heading then go MadMonday! It’s all there for your viewing pleasure!

      • RLGriffin

        August 13, 2012 at 12:40 pm

        Bookmark this link:

        I’m intending of doing a bulk of off-season/pre-season writing as well, so I’m sure I’ll link/refer back to the article again.

        • Slappers


          August 13, 2012 at 3:26 pm

          this has been booked marked… and im sure ill be bookmarking your other articles on this matter.

          once again great article griff

        • Waffles

          August 13, 2012 at 3:56 pm

          wow fantastic article. Thats in the calendar for next year :)

  10. Slappers


    August 13, 2012 at 12:35 pm

    i think players like Lids… not missed a game… scores 100+ most games… he is a SUPER PREMO GUN

  11. Wolf

    August 13, 2012 at 12:50 pm

    Great article and definitely worth revisiting before the start of next season!

    Personally I accept the risk of having a player that goes in hard like Selwood or Robinson and letting an emergency take their score for the 1 or 2 weeks they miss.

  12. Ridley U

    August 13, 2012 at 1:32 pm

    Interesting reading. Well done again mate. Very nicely articulated. I love these types of articles because they provoke discussion. There are way too many variables that haven’t been mentioned. Things like your bench and the guys you use to cover the players that have missed games. Being able to predict development/injuries/suspensions for players before the start of the season is nigh on impossible. The other thing you haven’t taken into account is the price tag and the overall team selected.

    People are kidding themselves if they would have thought that A. Swallow would be a better option based on the numbers from last year. Same thing could be said for the Mackie/Enright and Selwood/Cotchin examples.

    Hindsight is always great! If gives us something to go on for the next DT season. People need to be understanding that guys like Maric, Jacobs, Waters, Watson, Cotchin will be top dollar next season due to their figures this season. Interesting fact is that just going on figures, guys like Berger, Goldstein, Rockliff, Selwood and Broughton would have been on this year’s list last season.

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 1:52 pm

      Agreed. It’s a bit like catching lightning in a bottle; no one has a crystal ball and working out what may happen is a nightmare of a task, which is often impossible anyway. The theory behind this approach is that you don’t spend as much money on players that have a higher chance of letting you down, and instead spending the money on midpricers that can be downgraded to rookies if it goes bad, or upgraded to Guns.

      I’m also bitter about how much the LTIs have bit this year, and seeking a way to hedge my bets next year.

  13. tbetta

    August 13, 2012 at 1:34 pm

    Writing the Bullets but took some time to read Mad Monday – brilliant work again Griff – had some help from @petejank I assume?

    What worries me about these sorts of exercises is the premise on which they are based. We aren’t just comparing ‘Player X’ to ‘Player Y’ here, which would be fine because of it’s limited scope, but we’re arguing how to get the most points. But what we’re missing is some sort of correction which takes into account the score you may would have earned from your emergency for any game that your Premium (and by your definition, not a Gun) misses.

    For example, you say we should have picked Pavlich over Franklin. Here are the stats:

    Pavlich – 19 games, 1825 total points.
    Franklin – 14 games, 1476 total points.

    But for those 5 games that Franklin missed, I had Adam Treloar covering him. He scored 494 points in that time.

    So the equation effectively becomes:

    Pavlich – 19 games, 1825 total points, 96.05 avg versus,
    Franklin (and Treloar) – 19 games, 1970 total points, 103.68 avg.

    This effectively makes Franklin still a Top 5 forward as opposed to 18th. Personally, there are times when I’d much rather take the risk that some like Franklin (or Waters, or Chapman, etc.) will play almost every games then shy away from them for someone of lesser quality.

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 1:48 pm

      Agreed @tbetta 100% on your formula of including the bench player when looking at overall score. This article was originally a fair bit longer, taking into account such variables (cover, DPP, Captaincy potential), but decided to trim it down to it’s current form because it became far too confusing.

      Alternatively though, you may have had Jeremy Cameron or Aaron Hall as your on-field cover, so despite still having cover the scoring would not have been as good. You lucked out with Treloar hitting form right at the correct moment for him to do so. The main reason behind this thinking is in approaching next year, with trades and bench cover not likely to increase dramatically, LTIs could just about ruin a season for many coaches.

      I agree with the idea of taking the risk and hoping your backup covers you, but just offering an alternative view in how to take risks with midpricers instead of premium priced players, and letting your Guns remain in position all year. Also gives more bench flexibility for quick cash if you want to catch a rocket for a few weeks.

      Haha. Yeah I had @petejank look up some of last years end of season stats for me. Think I need to start building my own database….

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 2:24 pm

      The good thing about Mad Monday is it means that everyone gets a voice and someone with the great DT mind of yours can come in and point out the alternative view points of the topic. Looking forward to the bullets going up later this evening!

    • Antipasto

      August 13, 2012 at 4:29 pm

      Bench cover next year is paramount. I’d suggest it is almost as important as picking your premo’s. If you run with Buddy, Fyfe and players of that ilk then having reliable, secure and reasonable scoring bench cover will be essential. This will go back to being a far more difficult task than the previous 2 years of easy pickings with the expansion clubs.

      Roll on 2013.

  14. Lucas

    August 13, 2012 at 1:40 pm

    I have to include Barlow into my guns list. 11 100+ scores and only averaging less than 100 because of his subbed games. Started the season with Pav and Swallow (traded the former to Ablett) and nearly had Mackie.

    Good read Griff.

  15. sparlo

    August 13, 2012 at 1:44 pm

    Great article Griff but I disagree with some of your selections.

    Rocky and Fyfe played 20 and 21 games last year and killed it! There was no way of predicting their drop off in points productions this year and the supposed alternatives that you have suggested in Cotchin and Grimes have both had injury plagued starts to their careers and have hardly reached the point in their careers where they can be considered ‘gun’ players on the basis of durability.

    Cotchin played 22 games last year but that was only the first time in his AFL career. Grimes only played 6 games last year and has had a good season this year but is still on many ‘never again’ lists.

    Your theory definitely has merit though and reminds me a lot of the research I used to do when I first started playing DT when I would look at games played in previous seasons, disposals etc before I got too lazy and found sites like DT Talk.

    Too much information flying around and not enough of it of quality.

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 1:55 pm

      Yeah the examples aren’t perfect and very retrospective, but help to demonstrate a point. I personally was tossing up between Swallow and Selwood, and as such used that example, and I know many were doing the same with Sandi and Jacobs. The examples are there purely as examples based on current form, and were not meant to be concrete. The main reason I used those I did is many of them featured in the Deck of Dream Team at the start of the year.

      Cheers for the feedback.

  16. Dunders

    August 13, 2012 at 2:16 pm

    Just putting my two cents in and stating that Delido is the most underrated gun in the comp and number one lock for next year!

    • Mike Oxlong

      August 13, 2012 at 3:27 pm

      Might be losing his DPP though

  17. The x Factor

    August 13, 2012 at 2:33 pm

    • Waffles

      August 13, 2012 at 3:59 pm

      I love nate Fyfe and all but thats pretty funny/clumsy

  18. phatmaniac

    August 13, 2012 at 2:43 pm

    hands down best article on DT written this year!

  19. BOOMER

    August 13, 2012 at 2:52 pm

    Cheers Griff, love reading about the pre-season team selection process.

    Kinda’ have a different view about Heppell though, I got him in for consistancy and that’s what he provides. Heppell will only get better with more games and better core fitness, i’ll get him next year too, regardless of price.

    Buddy, Buddy, Buddy! Was this article inspired by Buddy Griff? Is that a vein popping on you’re neck? lol, Yeah totally agree about Buddy, as good as he was most of the season it was inevitable he’d miss games and this prolonged absense is just getting ridiculous now. Traded him last week to Pavlich, and news is Buddy might not play next week either, wow that’s one bad hammy strain?

    In a rush writing this, gotta go, cheers Griff. :)

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 3:23 pm

      Meh. This season my team featured as some point: Buddy, Broughton, Stevie J, Selwood, Rockliff, Shaw, Fyfe, Didak, Pendlebury, Thomas, MacIntosh, Waters… no need to single out a single player after this season.

      • feathertopDT


        August 13, 2012 at 6:33 pm

        No you can single out Broughton if you like

        • RLGriffin

          August 13, 2012 at 8:32 pm


          • BOOMER

            August 13, 2012 at 9:03 pm


  20. extrasupervery

    August 13, 2012 at 3:14 pm

    Whilst I agree this is a handy way of thinking about things, I still reckon it’s worth taking the hit on players like Buddy who are capable of knocking out massive scores, even though he will inevitably miss weeks during the season. I mean I dunno about everyone else but I’ve got to finals with trades to spare and I reckon it’s just worth picking players like Buddy simply because of those massive scores he can knock out, which can be a difference between a win and a loss at the end of the day.

    Players like Shaw, Broughton and Didak are another matter because their potential upside just doesnt justify it.

    • extrasupervery

      August 13, 2012 at 3:14 pm

      At the end of the day I guess it’s all about weighing up the pros against the cons and Buddy ticks the boxes for me.

      • RLGriffin

        August 13, 2012 at 3:20 pm

        The irony is, a lot of coaches say yes to Buddy, but no to Chapman, for essentially exactly the same reasons, and vice versa. I agree it would be hard to go into a season without Buddy, but almost as hard as most holding him for a hamstring niggle that looks like it will go into this week, making it six weeks out, two of which are DT finals.

        • Slappers


          August 13, 2012 at 3:30 pm

          problem is that Buddy was right to play against port… and he will be right to play the suns…

          but the Hawks are saying that he isnt or might miss the suns game only cause they dont need him to wiin…

          they are saving him for the big games and september action…

          but we all know that…

          mind you it is frustrating the “F” out of me seeing him on my bench for this long…

        • extrasupervery

          August 13, 2012 at 8:25 pm

          I see what you mean mate but I’ve actually got both Chappy and Buddy haha! I guess I haven’t really felt the burn that much though since I’ve had players like Devon Smith and Sam Gibson filling in.

          • BOOMER

            August 13, 2012 at 9:10 pm

            Doc Larkin suspects that Buddy had a setback with the hammy and the Hawks are keeping quiet about it. I think it sounds like a good theory, who misses 5-6 weeks with a hammy strain?

  21. coxtapstoswallow

    August 13, 2012 at 3:16 pm

    who would pick up delidio next year even if he is just a midfielder?
    he would have to be the most consistant dreamteam option going around

    • RLGriffin

      August 13, 2012 at 3:21 pm

      I would. Although I would be doing it knowing how well it did not go for Bryce Gibbs owners this year. A players like Lids is worth the my eyes.

    • Slappers


      August 13, 2012 at 3:39 pm

      i will be getting lids in… he will be my 1st pick of the year.

      • Waffles

        August 13, 2012 at 4:01 pm

        he will be named mid next year i would have thought , rightfully so he plays mid. and i am a lids owner

        • Waffles

          August 13, 2012 at 4:02 pm

          my bad didn’t read the comment (face palm)

          • BOOMER

            August 13, 2012 at 9:18 pm

            I think I’d pass on Lids as a mid. Touching upon Griff’s point about unlucky Gibb’s owners, you really don’t want to roll the dice with your premo mid’s. Really need to start with the likes of Swanny, Gazza Jobe & Pendles. I’d pass.

  22. Slappers


    August 13, 2012 at 3:51 pm

    mind you for the we went and the should have table…

    we went:
    Sandi – $469,900

    we should have:
    Maric – $262,700

    Profit = $207,200

    would have been handy.

    • Waffles

      August 13, 2012 at 4:04 pm

      grimes and waters against heppell and enright would’ve been handy too.

  23. pies2012

    August 13, 2012 at 4:14 pm

    Guys, Will fyfe play this week. Desperately need him to! i have Couch and folau in my subs. do u think either of them will play just in case?

    • Antipasto

      August 13, 2012 at 4:32 pm

      Fyfe’s injury report will be out later today.

      And if Izzy plays, it’s pretty much the equivalent of a donut. At least having a donut gives you some form of excuse to hang your hat on if you lose! :)

    • Slappers


      August 13, 2012 at 4:35 pm

      my magic 8 ball says “wait til thursday”

  24. Lukey85

    August 13, 2012 at 6:05 pm

    Cracking read Griff. We are spoilt for quality on this great site mate.

    At the pointy end of a second development (read: shithouse) DT season personally and I’m already super keen to find out who will lose/gain DPP eligibility next year. I wanted to take a bit of a punt on some of the younger generation this year in Sidebottom, Robinson and Martin etc. and being able to select them as forwards with mid DP made the decisions to start with them a lot easier. I will seriously be looking at Beams and Deledio in the midfield next year if they are pure mids only and look forward to seeing some more unique midfields next year.

    Rockliff is now on my ‘never again list’ but if he’s listed as a MID/FWD next year so help me…

    Thanks again for your contribution and keep up the great comments people. It’s this time of the DT season the cream rises to the top :)

  25. Slappers


    August 13, 2012 at 6:07 pm

  26. POK


    August 13, 2012 at 7:17 pm

    Really Great Article Griff!!

    For me you always have to have one or two ‘x-factors’ or inconsistent players in each position. For example Franklin might miss 4-5 games a year but we all want him when hes pumping out 130 +. Just imagine going a whole season without Buddy.

    It’s hard to say what an x-factor is though. I’d say its someone who you can deal with when they dont perform but can win u a match when u go big. Its a player who scores 130 one week and 80 the next. They still average 105ish. Players like Shaw and Rocky who pull out a big score once every 5 weeks are not ‘x-factors’ they are just plain shit to have.

    Another thought is what kind of structures people are going to go for next year. For me I’m really thinking of going with 5 guns/premiums to begin with. Probably thinking Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Cotchin and Watson. With the amount of mid-pricers that could be available next season then I’m pretty keen on loading up in the midfield. With forwards like Lecras, Nicoski, Rohan, Gray, Krakouer, Macaffer and J.J Kennedy (last 3 could be back this year) all viable options in the forward line next year. Then there’s Bock and Staker in defence as well as Leuenberger in the ruck. Add all these to possible brek out players and there are a host of mid-price options for next year. So thinking 5 guns in Mids and say 3 in the backline and 2 in the forwards. I guess it all depends on DPP as well.
    What are your thoughts on loading up in the mids next year??

    • Gregga

      August 14, 2012 at 12:33 am

      Sound in theory, however I think the only reason it could have worked this season was because of Giles – a mature age ruck at an expansion club getting regular games and semi-respectable scores. In the past it was a case of Cox, whatever midpricer and the highest draft pick ruckman. It saved us a lot of money this year having the confidence to go in with Giles virtually assured a game every week.

      I would be very surprised if you could do it next year as there won’t be as many rookie priced players guaranteed games, which means you can afford to play 5 gun mids as cheapies are still scoring you points. There will be a lot of mid-pricers next season (Mark le Cras is a chance to be most selected player in the whole comp) which may facilitate it, but I would be surprised.

  27. The UnderAchievers

    August 13, 2012 at 11:15 pm

    I think I speak on behalf of many DTer’s this season in saying that this year has been by far the worst year for DT relevant players being lost to an LTI. With the likes of Fyfe, Buddy, Carrots, Sandi, Berger, Pendles, Ryder etc, it is making it very hard to choose DT relevant players that are consistent and haven’t got a previous history of injuries. The situation doesn’t help when club doctors rule stars out for 5 weeks and then return the next week (I’m looking at you West Coast and Carlton). I think next year will be a completely different year compared to this year in terms of picking the initial teams. I think DTer’s next year, including myself, will be choosing people based on the fact that they haven’t got a history of getting injured, are consistent scorers and don’t get rested.

    • Michael

      August 13, 2012 at 11:45 pm

      “I think DTer’s next year, including myself, will be choosing people based on the fact that they haven’t got a history of getting injured, are consistent scorers and don’t get rested.”

      That’s exactly what Pendlebury was coming into this season playing all games in 2010 and 2011. He averaged 106.50 in 2010 and averaged 116.64 in 2011 (#1 overall points) and obviously never gets rested. All of a sudden this year he ‘breaks’ his leg.

      Look at Jobe Watson…..he missed 6 games last year due to ongoing hammy issues and all of a sudden this year has played every game and dominated.

      The logical selection coming into the year was Pendles. Basically it all comes down to luck… can pick a player that ticks all the boxes yet still get f**ked

      • Donk

        August 14, 2012 at 3:54 pm

        Exactly why I steered clear of trading Jobe in all year, even when he was dominating. History of hamstring injuries and just about every player on the Essendon list copping a soft-tissue injury this year. The logical call at the time was to look elsewhere, but in hindsight he would have been a great pick.

        I think we are seeing injuries occur to “reliable” players more often, look at guys like Scotland (yes he did end up only missing the one week), Simpson (bloody Wellingham), Goodes, Swan in 2011 (before 2011 he had barely missed a game).

        I think we can reduce the number of injuries sustained in our teams by steering clear of the more injury prone type players (Higgins, Broughton etc.) but it is inevitable that no matter who you choose there will be injuries to your players.

        Great article Griffin, it has given me a lot to think about picking my team for next year. I have been very strong on picking Pav in my team for this very reason, low standard deviation and doesn’t miss many games. Was looking like the wrong pick at the start of this year, but has turned out well since.

  28. Gregga

    August 14, 2012 at 12:27 am

    Brilliant article Griff, you always look for durability in a player in DT, however there are some players who you make exceptions for. I’ve had Chapman and Franklin every season. You know they’re going to miss one or two, but a bad game for them is a 75 or 80, where as a good game is 150. The upside is too strong to ignore for their position.

    A great example of what Griff is talking about is Pearce Hanley. He will likely end up in the top 10 defenders this season by virtue of the fact he hasn’t missed a game as opposed to players like Carrazzo, Waters, Scotland et al. But jeez, you thought Broughton was bad, holy hell. I had both this season. I don’t know why I did it to myself, it’s enough to give you a stroke.

  29. IanB

    August 14, 2012 at 3:03 pm

    Good starting point for DT2013, Griff!

    Just as you highlighted the importance of picking premos/guns who actually stay on the park, the same could be said of bench players.

    In DT2011, I made a huge mistake by trying to maximise my on-field dollars at the expense of my bench(thought I’d worked DT out totally after 1 year – wrooonnnggg!). I was forever scraping to cover injuries as my bench players were just too cheap and had just insufficient job security. I ended up trading out 3 players on 2 games each, but who were not being played, for no profit at all and when 3 team bye weeks came my team was a real mess.

    This year, job security of my bench players was the biggest factor and I’ve had a much better return from them this year. Other plus factors were DPP and mature age.

    So lesson learned – don’t go too cheap for your bench!

  30. Reprobates

    August 14, 2012 at 8:47 pm

    Well done..plenty of food for thought. ‘How do you balance star power with scoring power?’ That’s a good a catch cry for next year that I have heard.

  31. EastLondonD*ckhead

    August 15, 2012 at 2:46 am

    Thank you Griff for informing the DT community of my strategy for next year! I swerved Buddy this year as he let me down at key times last year and it seemed a sh*t idea until the last few weeks.

  32. chappalenkoubeauty

    August 16, 2012 at 6:54 am

    Great read.
    I have ummed and ahhed about JRoo and Dusty all year, got them both.
    Dusty averages 87, bang on if he has played each game but he hasn’t.
    JRoo averages 79 a bit under but has played every game.
    It could be argued that JRoo has in fact been the better DTer of the 2 this year.

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