Player Projections for DT Finals – Midfielders

There are a few more options in the midfield, so I’ve looked at the top 30 (excluding dual position players who you can find in either the defenders (i.e. Lids, Carrazzo, Scotland etc.) or forwards (i.e. Beams, Sidebottom, Chappy etc.) articles.

Just a reminder that the weightings are as follows:

45%

Player’s current season average (straight out of DT website)

+

30%

Player’s average against opponent over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

+

25%

Player’s average at the venue over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

=

Projected score

 

No, this model hasn’t been peer-reviewed and published in the journal Nature, so I accept that it won’t provide unequivocal finals projections. If you think it’s shit then feel free to go and get your advice from that Dream Team bloke (I refuse to refer to him as ‘Doctor’ because his title is more realistically ‘Year 9 Drop Out’ Dream Team).

 

Player	Price	F1	Score	F2	Score	F3	Score	F4	Score	Finals Average
Dane Swan	$594,700	SYD	126	NME	137	WCE	125	ESS	132	130
Gary Ablett	$521,200	GWS	115	HAW	133	CAR	112	ADE	130	123
Scott Pendlebury	$471,900	SYD	108	NME	117	WCE	126	ESS	120	118
Brent Stanton	$459,800	NME	120	CAR	118	RIC	114	COLL	115	117
Scott Thompson	$492,700	FRE	111	BRIS	124	MEL	107	GC	120	115
Jobe Watson	$503,100	NME	112	CAR	108	RIC	120	COLL	110	112
Matthew Boyd	$530,100	RIC	112	SYD	119	GEE	108	BRI	109	112
Joel Selwood	$470,400	WCE	108	STK	107	WB	106	SYD	106	107
Tom Rockliff	$473,200	CAR	94	ADE	115	PTA	110	WB	108	107
Marc Murphy	$406,900	BRIS	109	ESS	104	GC	111	STK	99	106
Sam Mitchell	$486,600	PTA	107	GC	109	SYD	91	WCE	113	105
Jack Redden	$460,500	CAR	105	ADE	102	PTA	107	WB	102	104
Shane Tuck	$501,300	WB	106	FRE	108	ESS	97	PTA	105	104
Brad Ebert*	$437,900	HAW	107	WCE	104	BRIS	104	RIC	100	104
Chris Judd	$418,500	BRIS	105	ESS	97	GC	107	STK	98	102
Andrew Swallow	$481,200	ESS	101	COL	95	FRE	107	GWS	100	101
Lenny Hayes	$424,000	MEL	104	GEE	101	GWS	98	CARL	99	100
Trent Cotchin	$480,300	WB	97	FRE	102	ESS	110	PTA	92	100
Jimmy Bartel	$431,500	WCE	96	STK	100	WB	103	SYD	99	100
James Kelly	$440,800	WCE	102	STK	91	WB	101	SYD	98	98
Dale Thomas	$442,700	SYD	89	NME	109	WCE	96	ESS	93	97
Matthew Priddis	$456,100	GEE	99	PTA	93	COL	97	HAW	95	96
Kieren Jack	$470,100	COL	97	WB	104	HAW	92	GEE	92	96
Ryan Griffen	$394,300	RIC	88	SYD	97	GEE	96	BRI	102	96
Josh Kennedy	$422,100	COL	94	WB	88	HAW	99	GEE	95	94
Luke Shuey	$456,900	GEE	91	PTA	95	COL	92	HAW	90	92
Shaun Grigg	$441,200	WB	100	FRE	84	ESS	94	PTA	91	92
Callan Ward	$434,500	GC	91	MEL	95	STK	81	NME	99	92
Scott Selwood	$384,300	GEE	94	PTA	92	COL	90	HAW	91	91
Matthew Rosa	$433,900	GEE	85	PTA	102	COL	89	HAW	88	91

* Given his trade, I haven’t included his data from last year.

 

The verdict

In his last two against Essendon, Dane Swan has averaged 171 with a standard deviation of…zero. So if you expect to be playing in a grand finalyou should do whatever is needed to acquire his services – he could well be the pirate’s #1 on GF day.Unsurprisingly, the usual suspects (Ablett, Pendles, Boyd & Jobe) are all up there and should do well, but I reckon Stanton’s projected consistency doesn’t reflect his roller coaster DT career – also he plays Collingwood on the last day and we know that Bucks likes to target him (case in point: Anzac Day). He’s just too risky. I’m also a little bit worried about what might happen if Raines goes to Boyd, away from this beloved Etihad, in the GF (Vossy please send him to Griffen). Scott Thompson is the realstand out for me, mainly because of his run homeand opposition on GF day – if you have him as a point of difference in any of your finals matches, you’re going to be in really good shape.

 

For those who are strapped for cash, on first glanceMarc Murphy appears like hecould do the job of a J. Selwood/Rockwiz/Mitchellfor a fraction of the price.I’d agree with you if Juddy hadn’tdecided to bend Leigh Adams’ arm into the fourth dimension. But now his suspension means that there’s no one at Carlton who warrants a tag ahead of Murphy in the foreseeable future.Although he’s done well against Brisbane in recent times, he’s never had to deal with a tag from Raines which, if he gets in week one of finals, could mean the end of your year, so beware. Geelong’s run home is tricky and they will likely need to win games so Bartel won’t be rested.Having done everything there is to do in the game (including finish the last few years in good touch),some may sayhe’s a safer option (and isn’t coming off a serious injury). I feel a little bit sick throwing Ebert out there as another alternative, but numbers don’t lie.

 

As far as points of difference go,one ofthe RedRockboys (Redden owned by 2.5%; Rockliff 5.9%) are your best bet as they should be pretty solidduring finals, while Swallow (owned by 4.4%) is always good for a ton ± 10 pts. I actually think Shane Tuck will have a pretty goodrun home (purely from a DT perspective) and he’ll never get but, in light of their respective prices, you’d be crazy to take him over one of the Brisbane guns.Given the alternatives in this table, I’d be staying away from the West Coast boys because they face some tough opposition in their last four and will probably take points off each other anyway. Likewise the Sydney combo (Kieren Jack under the radar much?!). Unfortunately Freo’s midfield doesn’t feature, nor does Melbourne’s, which suggests to me that their (DT) GF day clash could be a worse spectacle than Meatloaf’s abomination last year.

 

Rucks to follow.

 

All the best,

Emma Gemma Jnr.