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Player Projections for DT Finals – Defenders

I’ve put together a pretty rudimentary formula to project how the best DT players will score in each of our four DT finals matches. I’ve only considered the top 20 players (based on season average) in each position, who have played at least 8 games. Today I start with the defensive options.

So it’s almost finals time. Pre-empting my top four finish (yeah right), I’m using my last two trades this week but for those of you who are good coaches or have been lucky enough to avoid this year’s carnage, you still might a have a few left at your disposal. My good friend Kane falls into the ‘good coach’ category and last week reminded me that, at this point of the season, the guys we bring in will be with us for our tilt at the flag. With that in mind, he insisted that it’s essential to make sure the guys we upgrade to have a good finals draw and can smash out tons when we need them most. Hopefully the following can help you make the right decision if you’re tossing up between a few different upgrade options. Also, it might reveal who should be on your field during different weeks of finals.

 

Basically, I’ve put together a pretty rudimentary formula to project how the best DT players will score in each of our four DT finals matches. I’ve only considered the top 20 players (based on season average) in each position, who have played at least 8 games. Today I start with the defensive options.

 

For those interested in the maths, I’ve used a weighting to determine the projections. I assume it probably shares some loose similarities to that used by Assistant Coach, although it’s probably more realistic, given that I rarely get within 200 points of my Assistant Coach’s absurd projection. I’ve only included data from the last two years because I reckon some teams have changed tactics/coaches since 2010 (i.e. West Coast). I appreciate that’s not the case for all teams (i.e Freo, who have been consistently shit since 1995 and should just fold), but I’ve tried to make it as relevant as possible.

 

The weightings are as follows:

45%

Player’s current season average (straight out of DT website)

+

30%

Player’s average against opponent over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

+

25%

Player’s average at the venue over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

=

Projected score

 

So here goes…

Player

Price

F1

Score

F2

Score

SF

Score

GF

Score

Finals Average

  Brett Deledio

$500,300

WB

106

FRE

104

ESS

110

PT

106

107

 
  Andrew Carrazzo

$437,000

BRIS

98

ESS

109

GC

89

STK

100

99

 
  Beau Waters

$450,000

GEE

109

PT

81

COL

98

HAW

106

99

 
  Heath Scotland

$424,100

BRIS

100

ESS

102

GC

90

STK

98

97

 
  Grant Birchall

$428,300

PT

91

GC

94

SYD

98

WCE

95

95

 
  Brendon Goddard

$390,900

MEL

88

GEE

89

GWS

95

CARL

92

91

 
  Jack Grimes

$385,600

STK

94

GWS

92

ADE

86

FRE

89

90

 
  Matthew Suckling

$382,300

PT

88

GC

91

SYD

83

WCE

88

87

 
  Dyson Heppell

$375,800

NME

80

CAR

86

RIC

89

COLL

93

87

 
  Corey Enright

$403,100

WCE

80

STK

87

WB

90

SYD

90

87

 
  Pearce Hanley

$431,100

CAR

74

ADE

90

PTA

91

WB

90

86

 
  Heath Shaw

$374,200

SYD

72

NME

85

WCE

92

ESS

94

86

 
  Jed Adcock

$373,100

CAR

74

ADE

78

PTA

90

WB

85

82

 
  Jason Gram

$363,000

MEL

78

GEE

86

GWS

81

CARL

80

81

 
  Brent Guerra

$332,500

PT

76

GC

72

SYD

90

WCE

79

79

 
  Greg Broughton

$326,000

ADE

76

RIC

80

NME

90

MEL

70

79

 
  Shannon Hurn

$361,900

GEE

77

PT

78

COL

90

HAW

69

79

 
  Brian Lake

$355,800

RIC

69

SYD

69

GEE

90

BRI

79

77

 
  Nathan Grima

$341,200

ESS

65

COL

71

FRE

90

GWS

79

76

 
  Michael Johnson

$375,200

ADE

76

RIC

74

NME

73

MEL

75

75

 

 

The verdict

If you don’t have Lids, it’s pretty safe to say that you’re the dream team coach equivalent of Jack Anthony and won’t be anywhere near finals, let alone literate and reading this, so we’ll skip him. Carrazzo’s going to smash the last four games and Scotland won’t be far behind so they should be locks if you can afford them. It looks like anyone who held on to Waters might just be a genius (especially given his GF projection), as long as he gets himself back soon. For those of you who traded him, I hope it was to Birch who looks like a solid alternative. The most interesting finding of the analysis might be Jack Grimes, who is projected to be the seventh best defender during finals and should also provide a reasonable point of difference – definitely one to consider. There shouldn’t be too much separating Enright and Suckling, but each finishes season with a tricky match so I might even be inclined to stay away. Finally, if you’ve cemented a top 4 position and are confident you’ll win your qualifying final, Heath Shaw or HepD might be smokies as they should get better the deeper into finals you progress. I don’t think anyone else in this group is a viable option, least of all the Fremantle duo who will be too busy being shit to win you your league.

 

Midfielders to follow.

 

All the best,

Emma Gemma Jnr.

DT Talk - covering AFL Fantasy and other games since 2007.




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