Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 16
Ok… you all know that I’m a modest pirate and I hate to brag, so I won’t even mention what my #1 pick had last week. All I can say is… things could be even better this week, and not just from Gary!
So… did you have Gary Ablett locked in with the big ‘C’? Now, what did I say? Bloody hell… some people just don’t listen! Can you believe that people were saying to me… “Oh sh*t Calvin, I went Boyd over Ablett” as Usher would say, OMG! You guys have the easy job, you just need to listen, I’ll do the hard work, you listen!
Here we go… if you didn’t listen last week, here is your chance to get back on track.
This week Ablett will once again be amazing! As we know, he is coming off a huge 175 last week where he had 34d and 3.2 goals. But the amazing thing here is… he had 14 tackles (56pts alone). His form has been amazing as Gazza carries a lowest score of just 118 in his last 5 games this year with an average of 143 in his last 3. This week, he plays the Swans… and doesn’t Garry just love playing the boys from Sydney. Firstly, he averages 143 on them in his last 3 games and had 127 and 167 on them in 2010 when he was with Geelong. Before 2010, he smashed them again for scores of 141, 126 and 150. Sold yet? Ablett plays the Swans this week on his home track where he has averaged 119 there in his last 3.
Just to make sure we are on a winner here, let’s look at what scores the Swans have been giving up recently… Adelaide only scored 2×100+ on them at a very wet AAMI Stadium last week and in the week before Collingwood had 4×100+ on them with DT midfield premiums in Swan, Pendlebury and Ball all in the 100+ group. Then in Rd. 13, Carlton had 5×100+ scorers on them when Marc (129) and Bryce (127) cashed in… but Judd only had 85. Why? Well… he got the Craig Bird tag, and he has been going pretty well at tagging some of the big guns. Bird has tagged Scottie Thompson (92), Judd (85) and Cotchin (101) in recent weeks but surprising went to no one in the Collingwood match. Bird will have his hand raised high this week to have a crack at the former Cat superstar… but he won’t make an ounce of difference to Ablett’s massive score this week.
Mitchell at Aurora
Always a great option isn’t it? With scores of 132 and 129 coming from the Launceston ground already this year, Sam Mitchell will surely be great once again. He’s averaged 132 in his last 3 games this year with a low of just 128 during that time. He has scored 4×100+ on the Lions in his last 5 games at an average of 107 in his last 3. Sam at Aurora… always a good bet!
Boyd At Eti-Hard?
Is it really that Eti-hard Boyd? Man! In 2010, Matthew Boyd rocked up to Etihad with 120pts ready to go up on the board without even trying. In fact, last year he averaged 124 there with 90% of his scores being above 100+. But in 2011, things have been a little different. He has averaged 109 there so far this year with only 63% of his score in the 100+ range AND with 93 and 70 coming in his last 2. He had 142 last time he played the Blues in 2010 and we all know Boyd will bounce back for a huge 140 soon, but when will it be? Can you pick it?
Dane Swan had his personal best score EVER in his DT career of 162. He had 40d, 6t that day and ripped the Roos to pieces. He averages 134 on them in his last 3 games with scores of 123 and 117 coming prior to his PB. Swan has been awesome since coming back from his U.S adventure with 130 and 125 next to his name since arriving home. Make no mistake my friends, SWAN IS BACK.
Now, In the this game, Pendlebury didn’t have a personal best. He was close… he equalled his 2nd best DT score in his career (141). He racked up 39d with 7m and like Swan, wasn’t tagged. Last week the Saints played the Roos and even they scored massively on them. Goddard (130), Dal Santo (120) and even Montagna (105) chipped in for solid numbers to be 3 of the 6 guys to crack 100 against them. 11×90+ scores were had by the Saints with only 1×90+ score going to the Roos (Goldstein 130) and this was in a game the Saints only won by 9. Look out Swanny and Pendles fans cause this will get nasty!
Yeah let’s have a quick look at a roughie for this week. Paul Chapman is my man with an average of 103 against the Eagles in his last 3 games. He is coming off a 128 in his last game this year but has a very impressive record at Patersons Playground. In his last 6 games there he has gone… 101, 112, 146, 135, 105 and 126. Pretty good hey? So if you’re looking for a roughie or a good bet maybe, I’ll recommend Mr. Chappy.
There you have it. Based on the numbers alone it has to be Gary. But on the other hand I am very very confident in Swanny and Mitchell as well. Ablett ticks all the boxes this week in style so he’ll be my #1 man all the way!
Good luck and I hope you have a ripping week. I’ll see you back in here next week for the greatest DT captain advice in Australia.