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tbetta's Bullets

tbetta’s Bullets: Round 10

We’re back to down to earth this week with scoring returning to the status quo. And the status quo is that I fire my Bullets on a Monday – so I unload with the Weekend Wrap, Hawk Heaven, DT stalling, your Ruck decision, a new Eagle and Round 10’s Makers and Breakers.

  • Another Day, Another Bullet

Welcome back to the Bullets for another week. It wasn’t quite as potent as last weekend, but there were still a few good scores, including a new season-high. Team-wise, in the 2000’s was probably on par, with anything over 2100 a great effort.

Unfortunately, after singing the praises for our rookies as a whole this year, many of them let us down this week, or were absent (Heppell, Hibberd and Crameri, naughty), but more on that later.

On a personal note, I was hoping to brag about my demolition of Dr Dreamteam, who I came head-to-head with this week in the All-Stars League. But seeing as he only scored 1943, I figure it’s not gentlemanly to kick someone when they’re down, right?

  • Hawk Heaven

I, like many coaches out there, and probably even you reading this, follow Fantasy Freako’s Rave. It’s got a heap of relevant stats and Freako’s take on a few points, which makes it an incredibly handy read.

Last week he made a point that Hawthorn had taken over Collingwood as the competition leader in Dreamteam points per game, averaging 1685 for the year. To put that in perspective, GCS is ranked 17th with 1371 per game, and Fremantle is the median team at 9th with 1539 per game. So I thought I’d keep an eye on that over the next few weeks – but I didn’t have to look far.

This week Hawthorn smashed it! An amazing 10 players eclipsed the 100 barrier, and they scored a huge 2045 as a team! I can’t emphasise enough how incredible that is, scoring over 500 points more than the competition average…

The reason they scored so highly was due to their game-plan. The Hawks play a possession-retaining style of footy, preferring to hold onto the ball than kick long to a 50-50. As a result, they often chip it around maintaining possession until an opportunity opens up. On the weekend, Hawthorn had an amazing 180 marks, to 61 for the Bulldogs. An amazing disparity. Their kick-to-handball ratio was also through the roof, up at 1.81 to the Bulldogs 1.14.

Basically, after looking through these stats, all I can say is: Get on a Hawk defender. The top 6 scorers for the hawks were all backmen, and they averaged 139 between them.

I think the most amazing stat here is that they only won by 5 goals.

  • Stalling

A bit of a side note on the Hawthorn match was Sam Mitchell’s game.

As a Dreamteam coach, I almost religiously follow the Twilight Sunday game like a Hawk (see what I did there?) to find out whether I’ll win my matchups. You know, you all do it too. At half time I noticed Sam Mitchell was on a huge 90 points – on track for a ‘Guerra’ if you don’t mind.

The Bulldogs must have noticed, and sent Cross to him accordingly – and I was shocked to see he only ended with 103! A 13 point 2nd half. Looks like someone can’t handle a tag – I’ve never seen a player’s scoring dry up so violently and so suddenly.

  • Back the Ruck Up

Another cool heading from me there… Anyway, the big news coming out of last week was Sandi’s injury, which forced a few hands. Warnedog outlined a few options as his replacement if you had him, so let’s see who came out winners.

Straight trade for Cox

As Carrie would say “Predictable call, safe call, good call”. If you didn’t have Cox, this was a no-brainer. I’d suggest you were a no-brainer though for not getting him in earlier… But it’s worked out for you now. He managed 113 against Wood and the Pies, and he’ll be great value for the whole year.

Bench/Downgrade Sandi, Play Zmith.

We won’t know for a few weeks whether downgrading or holding onto the big 211 will be the better call, and I’d rather not speculate. Either way, it would have resulted in you playing Zach Smith if you had him – and he rewarded you with 88 points against the only undefeated team in the comp. Fair enough, no Ottens or Fraser, but that’s not his fault, and he performed. Given his recent form, I’d guarantee he’d be the Number 1 ruck at the GCS for at least the next two weeks while Fraser gets some fitness back.

Trade in Petrie/ Swap him with J. Tippett

Some of us had the option of switching in Petrie, and some even traded him in this week and bailed on the Fremantle Monster. Either way, he returned you 109 points, and it could have been more if he didn’t slow after a terrific first half. The beauty of this is that you have the ability to move him back into your forwards later on – you’ve got options.

Downgrade to Bailey for $

You should be ashamed of yourself, jumping ship like that… I may have also, if I could spare the trades! Bailey scored 57, which wouldn’t be terrible if you played Zmith, and really, not even that bad if you had to play him. You pay for what you get here – and I’m sure the cash would have come in handy elsewhere.

Sideways to another Premium

My least favourite option, but one that could pay off in the long run. Goldstein was popular, and he didn’t disappoint, notching 80. Leuenberger was another, and he managed 111 in a dominant display against the Crows. I even heard some brave souls went with Griffin, and he produced 85 – so good so far. There wasn’t really any ruck option that scored poorly this week, but my concern is the waste of a trade for a similar, better or more lucrative option.

  • Makers and Breakers

MAKERS

1. L. Hodge 154

2. M. Murphy 145

3. S. Johnson 171

4. G. Broughton 120

5. D. Thomas 123

Top spot in this week’s Makers goes to a DT Hall of Famer, Luke Hodge. A must-pick in recent seasons due to his prolific scoring and DPP link, but has struggled so far in 2011, seeing his price drop over 100k after Round 8. But with his last 3 games being tons and his most recent 154, we are starting to see the Hodge of old. He’s back to playing that quarterback style game that he trademarked in his fantasy dominance, so if you got on him at bottom dollar, well done.

Last week I recommended you aquired Murphy given his form and price… I wish I’d taken my own advice! He piped up with a 145 game on Friday night, and will fight out the Brownlow votes with Judd. He’s now priced at 427k, and with nothing under 98 in his last 5, he’s hitting some real form. Still a great option if you’re not worried about Carlton’s bye in DT finals.

Stevie J’s 29 possession, 7 goal cameo and ultimately 171 point effort earns his a spot on this week’s list. He would normally be higher than 3rd, but let’s be honest – he was playing the Suns. I may not like the way he plays footy, but there’s no denying he is a DT star, averaging 106 for the year with a basement of 77.

Broughton makes his first appearance in the Makers this year, mainly because he was a regular in the Breakers. With 92 and now 120 in his last couple, he seems to be coming into a little bit of form, which is great news for the coaches who kept him. It should be noted that most of his points were earned when he was thrown down forward in 2nd half junk time.

Rounding out the list is Daisy Thomas, whose 123 completes a treble of 3-digit scores. He’s now pushed his average to 104.6, so he could be a great upgrade after the Pies bye after Round 13, now that he’s rediscovered some form.

An honourable mention goes to Guerra with his 180 and 54k price-rise in a very Lake-like performance. Unfortunately only 4760 coaches own him, so he misses out on the list this week.

BREAKERS

1. D. Harris 25

2. J. Bartel 67

3. T. Liberatore 26

4. P. Dangerfield 28

5. R. Conca 29

It’s hard to put together a good score when your fringe players put up sh*t scores. That was the beauty of last week, but Round 10 was in stark contrast. Harris served up one of his career-worst performances with 25 until 3Q time, when Bluey was basically forced to sub him. A very, very average return for the coaches (like me) who held him despite his extra game off a couple of weeks back.

What’s going on with Jimmy? We’ve always known he’s a big-game player and he often sits out the easy ones, but 67 against the Suns?! Even more disappointing is the 4-game streak he’s on without a ton. This is great news for non-Bartel owners, with his price likely to plummet to about 350k – and we know he won’t stay down for long!

Libba’s 26 in a non-subbed performance guaranteed his first price-drop of the year. His BE is now 103, which means if you planned to cash him in, now’s the time to do it – and for a cool 167k profit! I would suggest he may miss out this week as Rocket will look to make a statement at the selection table after the Bulldogs suffered yet another embarrassing loss.

Dangerfield’s scoring chart looks like a heart-monitor, and that didn’t stop this week. He Katy Perry-ed it again with 28 (no sub), and that included a goal… He is one of the most inconsistent players in the league, and that’s why, Danger fans, he was not a good smokey pick this year.

Last but not least is Conca, who suffered a Rising Star hangover, and shed 70 points from last week to post a 29. Normally I couldn’t give a stuff, because if he was in my team he would be bench-fodder, but I probably would have played him this week after his 99, especially against Port. And that really pisses me off, as I’m sure it did to actual Conca owners.

  • Eagle vs Tiger

Answer: Eagle!

Ben Cousins is having a kid! As an Eagles supporter, I’m just a little excited. Providing it’s a boy. With the AFL father-son rules, you (in the majority) have to play 100 games for a club for your son to be eligible. Tick! So as long as he sticks around for 18 or so years, West Coast are laughing.

Interestingly, Ben himself was taken under the Father-Son rule after his father Bryan played 238 games for Perth and 67 for Geelong – making him eligible for father-son selection by three clubs – West Coast, Geelong, and Fremantle, who had just formed at the time.

How different things could be…

  • Next Week

This week we have Richmond’s bye, so get Deledio and J.Volt out and you’re set. With Lids sunbaking and Goddard doubtful, I’m not going to like the quality of players lining up in my backline in Round 11.

As usual, good luck, and hold those trades!

 

Follow me @tbetta9 on Twitter for the latest.

 

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