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(75% x old price) + (25% x Current Magic Number x 3 Game Rolling Average)

Tom Rogers sent us an article to help people understand the magic number and price changes. Hopefully readers get something out of this great piece of DT nerdery. Thanks Tom!

To be a great DreamTeamer you need 3 things.

  1. Luck (Obviously- Injures,  Price fluctuations, The right mid-price players and rookies.)
  2. Skill (Knowing who to pick at the start of the season.)
  3. Smarts (Knowing when to trade players, before the peak or before they bottom out.)

As a serious DreamTeamer I spend much of my day scouting for players b/e and considering players that I may have a closer look at.

These Players Include.

  • Jack Riewoldt
  • Paul Duffield
  • Sam Gilbert
  • Gary Ablett Jnr.
  • Marc Murphy
  • Graham Johncock
  • Brady Rawlings
  • Luke Hodge
  • Corey Enright
  • Paul Chapman
  • Daniel Connors
  • Ryan O’Keefe

And of Course Many More

Now let’s take Jack Riewoldt for instance, he has had scores of 106 (CFC), 0 (STK), 48 (HFC) and a 55 (COL). Many things have to be taken into account if we want to stock up on Jack.

The First Thing

  1. He has been averaging 52.25 with a sub affected 0 and a 48 in poor weather conditions.
  2. He has played 4 quality sides and is now looking forward to a NMFC, BRIS, FREO run. Which could see 3×100+ scores emerging.
  3. The final aspect is whether he is worth the quid, and that can only be answered using the ‘formula’ (75% x old price) + (25% x Current Magic Number x 3 Game Rolling Average)
  • Now I expect Riewoldt to reach at least 80 this week, and assuming that we would see a slight decline in price.
  • Another thing to consider is if you are planning to get him next week (When I think he will be slightly cheaper). Is what is worth more! $4,000 or an 80+

(75% x old price) + (25% x Current Magic Number x 3 Game Rolling Average)


This can be applied to all players!

(75% x old price) + (25% x 3928.65 x 3 Game Rolling Average).

Leaving The Current Magic Number at approximately 3928.65 and is looking likely to decrease over the next few rounds.

What these calculation shows is that Jack Riewoldt may be slightly too pricey for his current average, but we have to take into account that Riewoldt’s average includes a sub affected 0 and that he has played against the possible top 4 defensive teams in the league and the 48 was partially due to poor weather conditions.

Therefore if I was to include Riewoldt into my team, I would do it as early as possible!

By Tom Rogers.



  1. Phoenix898

    April 24, 2011 at 10:03 pm

    great Article Thanks :)

    • Knightmare

      April 25, 2011 at 5:54 pm

      The magic number changes. I dont care if u dont understand it but trust peopld it changes. Its just over 3900 atm and will be close to 3850 next week. This is the reason Guns drop in value.

      Looking at Swan his average after rd 5 is still 10 points higher than 2010 but his price? if MN is 3850 like i predict he will be $504k less than his start price.

      Watch these Guns during the next 5 rounds when the MN starts to bottom out.

      • GrainFedBeef

        April 26, 2011 at 9:42 am

        If the magic number is decaying at that rate it does not appear to have a substantial impact on the value of a player.

        Is the value of this not trying to predict TIMING of when to trade in and out players based on predicted value.

        Using this, it appears a rookie (assuming consistent average points) will achieve 26% of his value gain in 3rd game, 45% by 4th game, 79% by 7th game and 96% by game 11. When to trade him will depend on downgrade targets and team structure however there is a law of diminishing returns applying.

        Great article as I can apply different assumptions going forward and not be stuck with predicated values based on current average (like Jack where he has zero and a poor score). Given trades are gold, this analysis only needs to be applied on a few targets per week (at best). Good work Tom.

  2. Swannies

    April 24, 2011 at 10:29 pm

    Firstly, how did you calculate the magic number? The preseason one was 4162 which is the one I use and it seems to match up almost perfectly ech round (ie within a couple of k). Secondly, without a breakeven calculator and the formula for calculating the rolling magic number, this information is reasonably useless when looking to the long term.

  3. Mad__5kills

    April 24, 2011 at 10:47 pm

    No tigers. It’s a rule that all should follow. Helps with dream team scores.

    • Brak


      April 25, 2011 at 4:59 am

      No premiums from bottom teams is a good idea (no crows got 100 this week) but rookies tend to get more games, which explains why they are in the bottom 8 and you shouldnt …. you get it now

      • Brak


        April 25, 2011 at 5:04 am

        is it wierd for anyone else that we have a bottom 9 now?

  4. magpies01

    April 24, 2011 at 10:47 pm

    Why would you go through all this trouble if Dream Team works it all out. Good on you, but IMO I think it’s not useful and makes things complicated.

    • JungleMuffin

      April 25, 2011 at 1:35 am

      Knowing game dynamics improves your game.

    • Brak


      April 25, 2011 at 4:52 am

      fantasy freako puts it all into a nice pdf for us so no maths needed for us lazy bones

  5. Cal

    April 24, 2011 at 11:57 pm

    Great article however in the past i have taken breakevens, prices changes etc from the ffgenie application. However this year the formula for averages is different and considers byes as played games where the player has scored 0. This affects the average and therefore the breakeven etc etc and i was wondering whether anyone has a differnt version where this is not a problem. I am currently running version 2011.4

    • TheAussieDigger

      April 25, 2011 at 1:34 am

      preeeeeeetty sure it doesn’t count byes as played games

    • timb

      April 25, 2011 at 6:36 pm

      I had this problem at one stage, but I think that was for 2011.3. Definitely doesn’t now for me (as it didn’t count games when players didn’t play in previous years).

      Have you updated the stats recently?

  6. harrync

    April 25, 2011 at 1:52 am

    Ok… Great article.
    But still not completely sure about how this ALL Works.
    (75% x old price) + (25% x Current Magic Number x 3 Game Rolling Average).. what does it equal. What does it tell you?
    I’ve been playing dt for a couple of years now. and never really understood what this means..
    Is it meant to give you his next price?

    • Brak


      April 25, 2011 at 4:43 am


      • Nix

        April 26, 2011 at 8:29 am

        Actually No.

        The formula for next round’s price should say next round’s magic number not the “current” one. If people don’t know what they are doing suggest sticking to ffgenie / fanfooty / freako or assistant coach.

  7. Brak


    April 25, 2011 at 4:48 am

    I would like to add a 4th point for being a great DT player.

    4- Dedicated, checking teams ins and outs, injury lists, what teams will score high (for Rookie selections and Captain), which players are ready to be traded out or in EVERY WEEK for half the year.

  8. Matty411

    April 25, 2011 at 6:55 am

    As bad as Richmond can be Jumping Jack probably won’t go much cheaper now with the rolling avg rule applying. Time to jump on… If you can afford to.

  9. CheeseBalls

    April 25, 2011 at 9:06 am

    I prefer to steer away from tall forwards such as JVoldt who spend too much time standing in the goal square and only rack up DT points if they kick a bag. He might be cheap at the moment but he’s just as likely to get a 40 as he is a 120. imho.

  10. Mumbles

    April 25, 2011 at 9:14 am

    If you could apply a mathematical formula to DT with a high degree of accuracy
    Mi Hung Long would be driving a different Toyota to his noodle shop every day.
    Ditch your pen and calculator for a beer and dartboard.

    • Hurl_the_Pears

      April 25, 2011 at 11:53 am

      Ahahaha! This comment made me laugh! A touch of racism but humorous none the less.. Would love to see Mr Hung Long’s DT! :P

    • illbiteurface k.hunt

      April 27, 2011 at 11:17 am


  11. Ronaldo

    April 25, 2011 at 10:27 am

    I beg to differ; about 90% of DT is luck, 5% skill and 5% smarts.

    • tom

      April 26, 2011 at 10:37 am

      No way ronaldo. Proof of this is how guys like Tkol ended up in the top 100 last year and he is currently ranked 82 atm. That is not luck mate that is pure skill. Another guy on here was ranked in the top 500 for 3 years in a row. I reckon it is 90% skill/ smarts and 10% luck. Luck does play a factor no doubt but if you avoid injury prone players and spuds you can reduce its affects.

  12. marcus81168

    April 25, 2011 at 10:30 am

    J Roo will not score 90+ a lot as seen in the early Rounds. He will score well every now and then but it is no good for my team. He needs to score a lot of goals every match.

    • housn

      April 25, 2011 at 11:15 am

      If you’re going for overall, and you pick a guy as a keeper, then it doesn’t matter how much variance he has in his scores.

      A fwd who averages 90pts a match for the rest of the year is worth having. Even if he gets 130+ some weeks and stinks it up for 60 in others. All that matters is his total points scored between now and round 24. With that in mind, the main issue with Jack is that he still has two byes to come… I’m still in two minds about getting him in now before we play Bris and GCS.

  13. Kuruki

    April 25, 2011 at 11:09 am

    Great work all info is appreciated weather others use it or not is up to them.

  14. tome2712

    April 26, 2011 at 11:05 am

    Why would he be looking forward to Fremantle? They are not a quality side??? One of the best!

  15. illbiteurface k.hunt

    April 27, 2011 at 10:44 am

    In my opinion, getting Jvoldt in your team now is a waste of time. At best, he’s going to be your 7th forward averaging only 80 when it comes to DT finals. Is that really good enough?? It’s either that, or have to upgrade him AGAIN towards / around round 20. Burning trades for F all I reckon…

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