Curnow – to buy or not to buy now (The Peterson-Barlow scale)
We’ve all heard of the Duckworth Lewis System, now I’m going to introduce to you the Peterson-Barlow Scale. This was created by my mate ‘the mailman’ after he f*cked up and traded Peterson in last year after a price rise.
We’ve all heard of the Duckworth Lewis System, now I’m going to introduce to you the Peterson-Barlow Scale. This was created by my mate ‘the mailman’ after he f*cked up and traded Peterson in last year after a price rise. He created a page that he updated every week to show how much money he had lost and how many points he had lost…..it ended with him stating “bah I don’t care about DT this year…I’m just going to have some fun with it!” (as opposed to it being a drain on your life)
This is the scale he now uses to measure the success of bringing in rookies after their first price rise.
As we know, the standout rookie so far this year in AFL DT has been Carton’s Edward Curnow. Ed scored 107 on debut against weak opposition in Richmond but we all knew he’d be out to make a statement in his first game. He backed that up with a solid 91 against newcomers Gold Coast – but let’s face it, even Daniel Merritt would be expecting those numbers against the suns, and so the jury was still well and truly out. But it is the ton scored against the best team in the land on the biggest stage that made the DT fraternity take notice and seriously consider whether Curnow could go on with it and become the 2011 Barlow.
Buying rookies after their first price rise requires a lot of pride to be swallowed. And speaking of Swallow, if one was to purchase Curnow now, they would be outlaying only $13k more than they did for the Suns number one draft pick. And Ed would already seem to have far greater scoring potential. Although the Suns man would seem to have the edge in job security. But footy clubs don’t tend to drop players in form.
Taking a rookie after his first price rise is fraught with danger and an exercise that can backfire horribly. One only has to cast their mind back to last season when a certain coach (who shall remain unnamed) paid more than base price for a young fellow from Hawthorn named Carl Peterson. At the time, this coach had lost faith in Scott Gumbleton, who, after a promising start, started to ‘spud it up’ and looked cooked at less than 250k. Peterson was brought in for around 150k and some quick cash wash freed. At the time Carl looked the goods. But soon after his inclusion he became about as reliable as the SEN radio signal on your car radio as you drive next to a tram… he lost form and was soon out of the Hawks line up and became fantasy deadwood.
Now last year I was smart enough to take Barlow from the start. Many didn’t. But those that traded him in after what was probably the single biggest one-week price rise in DT history still made the right move. Barlow went on to put many seasoned premiums in the shade. The greatest cash cow in history or a genuine premium keeper tragically cut down – which ever way you look at it – Barlow was special.
Ok then, so back to the ‘Peterson-Barlow Scale.’ If we consider Peterson a zero and Barlow a 10, where will Curnow rate? That’s the decision that many a dreamteamer will face this week. The clock’s ticking so get out your crystal ball and determine where Curnow sits on the Peterson-Barlow scale: Anything less than a 7 and its not worth it.
If you decide that Curnow’s the real deal, the next step is to decide who’s going to make way to allow for his inclusion…
The use of dual position means I have no less than 15 players who could potentially step aside for the Carlton youngster. Let’s look at them in more detail. I’ll break them down into groups:
The Untouchables – don’t even think about it..
The ‘should be untouchables, but its tempting’ – Why am I thinking about this? Stanton anyone?
The Rookies – Will it end up sideways?
The midpricers scoring less than Ed – Would seem to be the most logical choice. Free up cash plus gain a better scorer.
It was easy to pick up Barlow last year from the start; he had scored 2 tons in the pre season and made us all take notice. Curnow was different; he didn’t even blink on the radar in preseason but has started with a bang. If you missed him last week will you swallow your pride and take him now after a price rise? Will it be the right move? Where does he rate on the Peterson-Barlow scale?