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DT 101

The Magic Number

For a lot of Dream Team coaches, the “Magic Number” is a bit of an unknown. We received this email from Knightmare who gives us some info on how the Magic Number works and what it means to players prices over the season.

The Magic Number is somewhat complicated in its design. It gives us the current value of a player and allows us to use dream team as a stock market game. The formula to work out a players price is this

(75% x old price) + (25% x Current Magic Number x 3 Game Rolling Average)

Example:

  • If a 100k rookie averages 100 over the first 3 rounds, with the MN 4152, then his price will change to:
  • =(75% x 100k) + (25% x 4152 x 100)
  • = 75,000k + 103,800k
  • = 178,8k

I read the other day the magic number changes so i wanted to check this out. Using a spread sheet and the price/scores of Swan, Pendlebury, Cross and Cornes I was able to track the magic number changes for 2010.

This change will have a bigger impact on our Dream Team values than we realise. 2010’s magic number started at 4394 and was the same in round 2. But at the end of round 3 had dropped somewhere between 4140 and 4160. Following its change from round 8 it had dropped to 4000ish and down to 3900ish to finish the year. (There is a slight discrepancy in the values and this is due to the prices being rounded to the nearest $100)

Why is it changing you might ask. Well its designed so that the value of the league stays constant. Adding up all the Collingwood player prices they start 2011 valued at just over $10 million.  I remember seeing real club teams priced between $8 and $11million last year so this seems plausible. So if Collingwood is the team with the most value and the Gold Coast we can assume is currently drastically less id assume the value of the whole league is somewhere near $160million. The combined value of all AFL players is set to stay constant, As players Like Mzungu, Krakhead, Richardson, Swallow, Heppel increase their values, someone else has to lose value, to keep the league at a constant $160 million.

Now that means when Dream team calculates a players new price and multiply his 3 game average by a slowly decreasing magic number he needs to be increasing his average  just to hold his value.

  • Dane Swan started at $523.5 he lost 40k in 8 rounds Averaging 2.2 below his start value.
  • Gary Ablett started  at $522.2 he gained 26k in 8 rounds Averaging 10 Above his start.
  • Boyd started  at $456.4 he lost 40k in his first 8 even tho his average was 4.5 higher
  • Paul Chapman started at $494.5 he gained 20k in 8 rounds with an average increase of 6.6
  • Goddard began at $455.7 and he lost 30k over 8 rounds. His average had increased by 1.1
  • Cornes started at $418.4 he lost only 8k in 8 rounds Averaging 7.3 more than 2009
  • Lake started at $356.9. He gained 15k in 8 rounds Averaging 7.6 Above his start value

The magic number generally loses 10% value most of which is in the first 8 rounds but with the introduction of the Gold Coast its tipped to drop by more like 13%. 4152 is the current magic number so by round 8/9 it may be very close to 3750 and 3600 by years end.

If you can find the Premiums that can increase their average and thus hold or increase their value, then the change in magic number is only going to help you and your total teams value. The more value you have on the field then the potential of your weekly score is higher.

In 2010 Swan lost 38k even tho his Average increased by 4.

That’s the theory of the Magic number, but in practice the only thing of value to us in all that is finding out when is the best time to trade out our rookies and trade in premiums.  I graphed the value of 12 of the best rookie and rookie priced players of 2010 to find a point in which they plateaued or dropped in value.

Somewhere between 8 and 12 games  these players peaked and this coincides with the drastic drop in Magic Number values at round 10. There is no perfect time to make the trade but if your rookie seems to Plateau or drop somewhere around game 8 or just after its time to bring in your bring guns.

 

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