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Calvin's Captains

Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 12

If last week you listen to the greatest captain advice in the world then you have had a score like 110, 143, 116, 128, 138 or 95. Yep that’s right! You know it!! This week I once again have some crackers for you… and a couple of captain favourites to beware of… so listen up me hearties!!

Oii arggg. Yep what a week I had. Just check out those scores on the side there will you and after 2,493 votes… many coaches had a great week with their captain selection.

44% of people last week rolled with Ablett for his 110 and only 3% of people took a gamble with my 2nd pick who top the list with 143! Goddard made my list for the first time this year for his 138 and only 7% of people gave him the ‘C’.

Anyway, don’t miss the boat this week, cause I’ll do it again… you know it!

Before we get into the real stuff. It’s always interesting to look at the teams who are given up 100+ scores to opposition players and always noting the teams NOT to pick captains again.  As you can see Collingwood’s ‘free flowing’ type game at the moment have allowed 17 players for the other team to hit the 100+ mark in the last 3 weeks. Roos and Richmond still feature at the top, as do the Eagles and the Crows. The lock down teams in the league are still locking them down. Geelong have only given up 5×100+ scores in the last 3 weeks and the Saints, Lions and the Blues are all doing the same. This should always be a factor in picking your captain!
Good luck and lets get into the real stuff.

Nth Melbourne Vs Carlton

Harvey – 109
Carrazzo – 96
Marc – 88
Gibbsy – 82
Judd – 69

Marc Murphy averages 88 here in his last 3 and looks solid here with nice scores of 109 and 95 in here last 2. Juddy seems to struggle though. He has never scored over 100+ Vs the Roos which makes them his 2ndworst team. Despite the fact that the Roos give up 100+ scores, I’d be staying clear of Judd this week based on those numbers. Carrazzo has had just a 70 and a 98 in his last 2 but before those games he was awesome with scores of 119, 115 and 118. He might just a tagging role this week on Brent Harvey who tears the Blues apart… and if he tags… he score will be crap. Harvey does need a tag though, and after scores of 111, 121, 95, 116 in his last4  against them he is set to kill them again. Watch out for Brent this week!
High and LowBryce Gibbs had his lowest score last week in over 50 matches. His 53 certainly did not back up his career high of 166 the week before! He did have 119 last time he played the Roos so he might be back this week.

Hawthorn Vs Adelaide

Thompson – 121
Hodge – 92
Mitchell – 89
Goodwin – 79
Buddwood – 69

Buddy will be back this week and he might as well stay away. With 1×100+ in his career of 7 games Vs the Crows, he’ll struggle again. Hodgey looks ok though with an average of 92 in his last 3 Vs them and he is averaging 110 this year. He did have just 77 in his last Vs the Crows, but will be better than that this week. Sam Mitchell had 59 last week and a 111 last time he played the Crows. He is as reliable as a ‘buddy-bump’ at the moment! Thompson had a smashing 143 last week and looked sharp as, as is back in town. His last scores Vs the Hawks are amazing… 90, 129, 141, 103, 130, 146, 127 are crazy! The Hawks are his favourite team by a mile and he should crack another 100+ EASY!
Aurora Gold– Yep, back in old Launie town down he with the DT TALK boys in Tassie. Aurora is one of the highest scoring ground for DT points in Australia and will suit these lads again. Thompson had 103 in his last game here and Hogde had 110 in his. Sam played here a few times in 2009 for solid scores including a 140 and 132. Big scores will flow!!

Essendon Vs Geelong

Ablett – 125
Bartel – 122
Selwood – 115
Chapman – 114
Stanton – 112
Prismall – 98*
Stevie J – 94
Enright – 89
Jobe – 58

Stanton missed last week and if he’s back look out for a big one from him. He had 145 (31d) last time he played them which was in the first round this year. Jobe Watson’s form has been great but he’ll be cut down this week. He has received the Pink Pig tag in their last 3 or 4 games and is a sure thing to get it again. Prismall’s 98 was in his only game Vs the Cats. Joel Selwood averages 115 in his last 3 here and with scores of 107, 135, 103, 116 in his last and only 4 games he has played against them, he is set for another ripper. With those numbers… you don’t need to be a detective to work out that the Bombers are his favourite team to play! Chapman got another 100+ last week to make it 11 in a row for 2010. He played these guys in 2010 for a 105, then back in 2008 for a 85 and then back in ’07 for a huge 153. despite the fact he had just 47 in his last game at Etihad… he’s just too good to ignore at the moment. Stevie J had 96, 132 in his last 2 against them but hasn’t cracked the 100+ mark in his last 3 games this year. Barnacle Bartel was back last week with a 116 and has cracking numbers here again! 114, 117, 136 are his last 3 scores against the Bombers and should go BANG again. That averages out to be 122 in his last 3 and that just can not be ignored. Gary Ablett is better though, as you’d expect. Brace yourself for these numbers in his last 5 against them… 129, 125, 121, 124, 101. Huge and consistent! Lock Gary in for a 12oish score this week.
Etihome Stadium– The big gun Cats don’t mind a little Eti action despite not playing there this year. Ablett averaged 120 there last year (confirming my 120ish prediction) and Bartel averaged 106 there. Chappy averaged 91 despite that 47 he had there in his last and Stevie averaged 112 in 2009. Selwood enjoys it the most with an average of 124 there! The Cats love these types of games and in nice conditions (roof shut) these boys will not disappoint.
Last Time They Met, Rd. 1, 2010– As I’ve said, they met befoet his year in Rd. 1. But what happened? We’ll… Pig tagged Jobe and Welsh tagged Gary (37d). Dyson went to Bartel (114pts) as Stevie knocked up 25d for his 96pts. Stanton was allowed to go head2head with Stanton, hence there nig score of 107 and 145. Chappy ran free for 27d and Enright received a backtag by Hocking for his 90pts. Nothing too out of the ordinary here though.

Port Adelaide Vs Sydney

Kirk – 111
ROK – 89
Kane – 81
Goodes – 80
Boak – 68

This will be quick. Kirk rips the Power! 128, 115, 90 are his last 3 scores so look out him in a multi bet this week. Although I’m getting frustrated with the betting side of things and I’ve stopped betting until they start putting some of the players I list in here as options to bet on. No one wants to bet on ‘mid range’ guys… we want to bet on the big guns, so don’t leave them out. Instead shorten their odds if you’re that worried. But yeah, nearly everyone mentioned in my top 5 gets pulled off the lists along with anyone else who shows potential for the week or a glimpse of talent. Oh ok, that’s off my chest… sorry.  ROK had 108 in his last agme against them and finally cracked 100+ last week to break his 4 games drought. Goodes will struggle and hasn’t scored 100+ on these guys in his last 6. Arggg. Kane did have 100+ last time he played the Swans… but it is his only 100+ score on them in his career of 11 games!

Richmond Vs West Coast

Tuck – 111
Cox – 110
Deledio – 107
Priddis – 102

Based on those numbers, this game looks very interesting. Deledio has had 136 and 110 in his 2 games against the Eagles in 2009, making them his favourite team for that year. Tuck has gone 101, 112, 120 in his last 3 against them and those 2 boys are looking pretty good. Cox has had previous scores of 98 and 112 but has failed to cracked the 100 mark in his last 4 games this year. Priddis plays his 2nd favourite team of 2009 and with scores of 97 and 136 in his last 2, he might be a good option as well.
100+ Scores Everywhere– We’ll there should be. The Tigers give up oodles and the Eagles hav given up the 3rd most 100+ scores in the last 3 weeks.
Calvin’s Upset Tip– Yep… Tigers to beat the Eagles paying … hang on… $1.85 (as of Tues on, you gotta be kidding me? Apparently it’s not an upset and the Tigers are the favourites… well bugger me. A team that has won 1 game!! Headshake. Forget I said anything!!

Western Dawgs Vs Brisbane

Boyd – 109
Brownie – 99
Power – 99
Higgins – 95
Gia – 93
Cooney – 92
Black – 85

Cross will struggle here as the Lions are his worst team to play with 0x100+ scores in his last 6 against them. Boyd was wicked last week as my #2 pick with his 143. He has scored 4×100+ scores in his last 6 games against the Lions and that includes big numbers like 125, 138 and 140. Watch out for another big one from this jet! Cooney hasn’t cracked the ton Vs these lads in his last 4 so he might struggle again. Big Jonno Brown has previous scores here of 87, 120 and 89 and should go ok. He has been a little up and down of late, and should be avoided as a captain option this week.
Last Time They Met, Rd. 4, 2010– In this game only 2 players cracked the 100+ mark with Power top scoring with just 110. Brennan had 108 and should be back this week. Lake was on Brown (87) but is likely to play at the opposite end of the ground to him this week I reckon. Addison tagged Sherman (69) and Black DNP. Boyd had just 95pts (27d) and Higgins was the top scorer for the Dawg with just 98. Brisbane has their chances at goal though as they booted a crap 13 goals 23 points to the Dawgs 12.7!

Fremantle Vs St Kilda

Dal Santo – 115
Goddard – 111
Montagna – 102
Hayes – 99
Pavlich – 79
Sandilands – 73

Righteo… this game will be interesting for so many reasons. Pavlich should be quiet with 0x100+ scores in his last 3 games against the Saints. Sandilands had 113 last time these guys met but carries a crappy average of just 73 in his last 3 against them. Goddard has been in smoking form and has had 6×100+ scores in a row this year averaging 128 in his last 3. He averages 111 in his last 3 Vs the Dockers and with previous scores of 130, 104, 98, 106 he should be well and truly on your radar. He averages 105 in his last 2 at SUBI and that’s with a 124 in his last game there, watch out for another 100+! Lenny Hayes is also on a run this year with 7×100+ scores in a row. With previous scores of 140, 45, 119, 107 coming from his last 4 games at SUBI, he too is one to certainly consider despite the tag he gets from Crowley. Keep them coming V8…. Dal Santo has previous score here of 130, 116, 98! He averages 113 at SUBI in his last 2 and should once again be good. Montagna has had 146 and 151 in his last 2 weeks this year and will be looked at here just based on his form. But with previous scores of 94 and huge 166 in his last 2 at SUBI, Montagna will be clicked on by many this week. He has had a 95 and a 119 in his 2 games against the Dockers and with the taggers going elsewhere… Montagna will be a solid option again this week and has the form to support your case that’s for sure.
Last Time They Met, Rd. 4, 2010 – Dal Santo and Goddard had huge 130’s and Montagna had 95. Crowley did spend much of the day tagging Hayes (99) and Clinton Jones tagged our beloved Barlow (78). So a quiet game for him I’m tipping this week. Pavlich had 94 and with 8×100+ scored… there will be some HUGE scores in this game, but can you pick to which players. My tips for huge scores here will be with the guys who did it last time. Goddard and Montagna. Mainly because the Dockers only lost by 15 when they played against the Saints and will run with the same sorta plan…. Meaning Goddard and Montagna will have a ball!

Melbourne Vs Collingwood

Swan – 116
Pendlebury – 109
Didak – 103
Bruce – 96
Green – 92
Grimes – 79*

Ewww, last one and it should be a corker. Brad Green has a great record here with 115, 49, 113, 102 in his last 4 against them and if you can ignore the 49, he’d average 110! Bruce had a 58 in his last game against the Pies, but before that he had a ripping 112 and 117, and Grimes’ 79 in just from the 2 games he has played them in his short career. Didak has a smashing record here averaging 103 in his last 3 against the Dees. He did have just 52 in his last against them, but before that he 127, 131, 101. They are his favourite team of 2009 so look out for what he will do this week. Pendlebury also has a smashing average of 109 here and that comes from his last 2 games of 116, 147. He avoids the tags in these games and should be great again. But then we have Swanny, who I’m worried about this week. He averages 116 and has posted 84, 133, 130 in his last 3 against the Dees. He averages 119 at the MCG in his last 3 this year and looks like a great captain option.. but I’m worried…. Firstly, those 100+ scores you see in his previous scores (130, 133) are his only 100+’s in his career of 7 games against the Demons. Secondly…. My biggest and to be honest my only concern with the Great Dane this week is this….
Caution Swan Fans– Seriously! Be careful this week Swan fans. Mc Donald will tag him for sure and last time he did he held him to that 84. Last week he held Juddy to 63 till ¾ time and he will certainly be going to Swan again! You have been warned. But hey… it is Dane Swan!
Last Time They Met, Rd. 1, 2010– Remember this game? Collingwood won it by a tiny 1 point? Pretty sure the Pies will not let this happen again. Pendles went head2head with Moloney for his 116. Swan was beaten by Mc Donald for his 21d (84). Didak had just 15d and Greeny kicked 3g in his 115. Heath Shaw also had another crap 64, so you might be annoyed with him again if you have him.

Remember, my top 10 are in the order that I would pick them if I had them… This takes me ages to do after I select my top few, so please know that this part takes my deepest thought after analysing the numbers. So don’t ask…. “Goddard or Swan?” Cause as I just said… it’s in order! With that said. Why do I have 10? Cause I don’t want to leave out the other 5 there because they will have a bloody blinder as well.

Personally, I will be locking in Bartel at this stage and maybe Swan if I feel like a bit more of a risk. Goddard should join my crew this week (fingers crossed) and might also get the ‘C’ straight up, but usually I make players do a week on the track before getting the big job. But to be honest I’m very up in the air. 70% at Bartel at this stage, Swan (30%) but I’ll let you know in the comments as we get closer to lock out. Good luck everyone, hope you drill a beauty!

Who deserves the Golden Stubby for Round 15

  • Dean Cox (40%, 907 Votes)
  • Dayne Zorko (42%, 971 Votes)
  • Paul Chapman (4%, 99 Votes)
  • Cyril Rioli (4%, 97 Votes)
  • Matthew Pavlich (10%, 218 Votes)

Total Voters: 2,292

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